This could be one of the most interesting offseasons with regard the QB position throughout the league. There could be some really good QBs either switching teams or even retiring. This is a thread to discuss that topic.
This could be one of the most interesting offseasons with regard the QB position throughout the league. There could be some really good QBs either switching teams or even retiring. This is a thread to discuss that topic.
We know that Philip Rivers will no longer be with the Chargers, and there’s a decent chance the Chargers will sign a solid veteran, even if they draft a QB. But the situation will get wilder if QBs like Brady, Brees, Newton, Carr change teams or retire. It seems like Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota will be one new teams as well. Jameis Winston and Joe Flacco might be two more. (Who am I missing?) I also think that Indy will look for a QB, or at least I think they should. (I like Brissett, but he seems more like a good backup.)
Off the top of my head, here are some thoughts about this potentially crazy offseason of QB moves.
Brady Not Moving
To me, all the media stories about Brady wanting to move, selling his house, etc. feel like rumors put out by his team to gain leverage. He could genuinely open to moving, or maybe he wants to play for a different team, but if I had to guess, I’d say he prefers playing in New England, and this is a primarily a ploy to help his contract and/or pressure the team to upgrade the roster, especially on offense.
(By the way, the speculation of Brady going to the Cowboys feels like a ploy by the Cowboys to gain a bit of leverage in contract negotiations with Prescott, as well, in addition to another story that will help Brady in his negotiations. I would be shocked if the Cowboys sign Brady.)
If Brady did move, which teams would be a good match? I’ve heard people talk about the Chargers being a good landing spot for Brady, but their OL seems too shaky to make this a great fit for me. Plus, something seems wrong with their organization. I don’t know how else to explain their underachievement over the years.
The Colts seem like a good fit, maybe even the Bucs. Some say the Raiders, but I’ve heard others say he and Gruden would clash. As a Raider fan I wouldn’t mind this, but it would mean drafting a QB, in addition to moving on from Carr. Relying on the draft, for their next QB, seems like a dicey proposition, especially given their draft position.
I’ll say this: I really do want to see Brady go to another team–primarily to see how well both he and Belichick would do without each other. If both did well it would bolster their cases as the GOATs.
Chargers, Colts, Buccaneers, and Bears
These are teams that are fun to speculate about. For one thing, with the right QB all these teams could be potential Super Bowl contenders. I’ll comment on each team one by one:
Chargers
I suspect the Chargers are going to use their first pick to draft a QB, but it would make sense to bring a veteran as a stop gap measure. Someone like Mariota or Winston might be interesting, as both have a chance of being long term solutions, and if they draft a QB that turns out to be good, having two really good QBs is a good position to be in. Mariota or Winston likely wouldn’t make the team contenders–or there’s other QBs that would have a better chance of doing that.
If they just want a stopgap, there might be a lot of guys that could fill that role.
Colts
I like thinking about who the Colts could get. Brady, Rivers or even Brees seems like attractive choices, and if the Colts can land a good prospect in the draft this type of move would make sense. Playing in the dome would be good for both QBs, too. Both those guys could make the Colts contenders in my opinion.
The one question I would have is at the WR position. The Colts don’t seem great in that area. However, I’ve been hearing that this is a great draft for WRs. The Colts also have $90 million in cap space, so they could also bring in a good pass catcher.
Buccaneers
I like thinking about the Bucs getting a good QB because if they do, I think they would be my dark horse team for going to the Super Bowl. I really like the idea of Rivers pairing up with Arians, although I can see Brady making sense here, too.
Bears
The Bears defense took a back step last year (Akiem Hicks missed a lot of games, I think), but if they return to form, they seem like a QB away from being a contender. They seem to have weapons on offense, too. The thing is, if you bring in a QB, this basically means moving on from Trubisky, which I tend to think should happen.
The Bears could try a similar move that the Titans made–bring in a backup–like Mariota or even Carr or Flacco. And if Trubisky fails, they could put in one of those guys. (I actually don’t like Flacco there because the Bears don’t seem to be able to run the ball well.)
By the way, I didn’t mention the Jaguars or Nick Foles. If they move on from Foles, the Jags picking up someone like Mariota, Flacco or Carr seems like a good move. Flacco in an offense built around Fournette seems like a good match.
Mariota and Carr
With Mariota, I would like to see him with the Patriots. I also wouldn’t mind seeing him go to Cowboys, just because I think McCarthy is really good with helping QBs develop footwork and timing (both of which I think Mariota needs). The Raiders would be another intriguing place, although I’m not sure Gruden would develop Mariota, given what I’ve seen from Carr.
A good route for Carr might be the one Tannehill took. Teams like the Bears, Jaguars, or what about the Niners. The Patriots and even the Steelers might be a good place….I haven’t mentioned the Steelers, but getting a player like Carr, Mariota or Winson might be good move for the Steelers, as Roethlisberger is no spring chicken.
Slash 2.0
On a side note, I’ve heard Hill wants to be a starter. I can’t imagine a team spending a lot to get him and making him a starter. The guy hasn’t really thrown a lot of passes. To me, he would be a really good backup for Lamar Jackson, but if he wants to start that’s obviously not a great place for him.
Are people calling Taysom Hill Slash 2.0? That’s an unwieldy nickname. I don’t like it.
Hill’s a restricted free agent. If I’m the Saints and I don’t think Brees is coming back, why wouldn’t I try to keep Hill? Did they draft him not planning to use him at QB? If so, they need to let him go and he needs to find another home, someone who’ll give him the chance he wants.
I think the Colts are an attractive spot for a young or mid-career guy, since I do not think they’re a veteran QB away from the Super Bowl. Although I’m hearing whispers of Brady or Brees to the Colts, I simply cannot see it happening. Someone like Bridgewater, Hill, or Winston might be a good get. I wouldn’t feel bad at all if I had Brissett and Bridgewater duking it out to be the starter.
He’s not a free agent, but if I’m the Chargers I’m looking for a way to get Cam Newton. I think Brady would be making a mistake to go to Los Angeles, so if they can’t get Newton away from Carolina, they should think about Tebow, and I’m not even kidding. They need someone to generate buzz for that wretched situation.
For Las Vegas, what I really would like to see is Brady take over and Carr back him up. But if Carr really needs to get out of there, why not a backup job in SF? The Niners would really do well to get a backup like that; and I think he would do pretty well there if Garoppolo goes down for a few weeks.
You didn’t mention Dallas, and I think Dallas should seriously be thinking about someone new at QB. Keeping Prescott is going to be pricey, so pricey that they can’t possibly get value. Why not take that same amount of money and go hard after someone like Brees? Or heck, even Rivers? Then trade Dak while trading him is still semi-appealing to someone like, I don’t know, the Colts or Bears? Shoot, I think Dak could actually do well in Chicago.
For Mariota and Winston looking for possible Tannehill situations, what about Minnesota? Cousins isn’t nearly as iffy as Mariota was in Tennessee last season, but if I’m the Vikings I’m seriously thinking about a contingency plan if Cousins continues to be what he is, which is a dice roll from week to week.
I haven’t heard anyone use it, and I’m using it as a descriptor, not as a nickname. Essentially, Hill is another version of Kordell Stewart, maybe a better version, too (as far I know, Stewart didn’t play on ST).
If Brees leaves, making Hill the starter seems like a very risky bet. I believe he’s 30 and has only thrown 15 passes last year. If Hill insists on being a starter, the Saints should move on.
I’m skeptical about Brees and Brady going to the Colts, too, but if they did, I think they’d be contenders, or close. If Luck played, I think they would have been contenders or close.
The thing about going with a young-ish/mid-career QB is that many would be a risk–like Bridgewater or Carr. If they could get Brees, Brady, or Rivers, I’d prefer that, and then draft a QB.
Having said that, of the mid-career guys, I’d like Stafford or Newton, assuming he’s healthy. I think both could have similar impact as a Brady, Brees, or Rivers–maybe even a better impact.
By the way, I’ve heard the possibility of the Lions moving on from Stafford. I have no idea if that’s true, but there a lot of teams that would be intriguing landing spots–e.g., Colts, Patriots, Chargers, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Bears, Panthers, Dolphins, etc. If I were these teams I’d be interested in getting him. I’d add the Titans, Steelers, and Cowboys as well.
I should mention one caveat, though. I’m pretty high on Stafford, but I do have one reservation. Colin Cowherd has pointed out that Stafford doesn’t perform well in big situations. A part of me felt he hasn’t had enough weapons, especially in terms of the run game. But I think Cowherd has a point, too. I don’t think he lacks poise, but he just might be not be able to make the handful of plays you need to win big games.
I don’t think Brady or Newton should go there. Their OL is kinda of a mess, and something seems wrong with the owner and organization. The problem with Tebow is that truly fanatical supporters may create a lot of problems for the organization–not just in terms of distractions, but if he’s not that good, those fans might still want the team to stick with him. If you took away these elements, I think he’d be an intriguing backup for the Ravens. Or he should go the “slash” route like Taysom Hill.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Brady with the Raiders, but I’ve heard people say he’d never get along with Gruden. I also can’t see Carr being a backup there, not with the Raiders. Carr going to the Niners as a backup would be a great situation for the Niners, and maybe for Carr, too, although I kinda feel like he has the same problem as Garoppolo.
The thing is, Brees or Rivers, would be temporary solutions. If they had someone waiting in the wings, that would be a great plan.
I don’t agree with this characterization of Cousins. He needs really good supporting cast, but if he has it, I think he’s good enough to win a Super Bowl. I’ll say this: I would have liked the 49ers’ chances a lot more if they had Cousins vs. Garoppolo.
Here are some of the names that came up in the discussions above: Brissett, Trubisky, Garoppolo, Carr, Tannehill, Marriota, Winston, Cousins, and Dak. How would you rank these guys? I’m with Reid in thinking Cousins is above some of the other guys. I would put Dak and Cousins in a tier above the other guys. I think I would put everyone else in a tier together, but I would put Winston at the bottom of that tier. I don’t want him as my QB. Of the guys in the tier below Dak and Cousins, I would lean Brissett if I had to choose. He doesn’t seem to have Tannehill’s talent, but for whatever reason I like his moxie.
Although I think Dak is good to great, I wouldn’t pay him. I would pull a Patriots on him, and try to sign him or tag him and see if I can get a couple first round picks for him in a trade. I would rather the Cowboys try and sign Byron Jones, Amari, and Cobb. I love Dak, especially his leadership and poise, so I’m not going to be disappointed when the Cowboys do pay him, but I’m just saying what I think is better for the Cowboys to do.
Off the top of my head:
1Cousins,Prescott
2Garoppolo
3 Tannehill, Carr
4 Mariota, Brissett
5 Trubisky, Winston
I think Prescott, Carr, Garoppolo, and Mariota still have upside, and their upside is bigger than the rest. Winston’s upside might be comparable, but I have less hope for him.
I kinda like Cousins a tad more than Prescott–although I think Cousins will always need a really strong supporting cast to win a Super Bowl. Prescott may develop into one that doesn’t need as much.
By the way, I would put Goff on a similar level as Garoppolo–except when Goff has a really good support cast (especially pass pro), he’s better than Garoppolo, and all the other QBs on that list in my opinion.
I like Brissett, too, but he’s looking like a good backup.
I’m a little surprised you’re for not paying Dak–and even moving on from him. I might be OK if they bring in a guy like Dalton, Mariota, Carr or even Flacco. Carr and Mariota would be risky, though, as they may not work as long-term starters.
Having said that, I’d be nervous paying Dak a lot–so I guess I’m not that surprised. Putting the franchise tag on him like Cousins makes sense, but I sort of don’t like using the tag. I prefer FOs offering something they think is reasonable, and then if the player doesn’t like it, letting them go on the market.
On another note, look at this tweet on Jared Goff:
I’m not sure if this is accurate, but if it is, I’d be real nervous if I’m a Rams fan. I said that Goff is really great with really good pass pro, but he’s really not good when it’s not. The thing is, you can’t expect pristine pass pro in the playoffs. There’s almost sure to be hairy situations for a QB; they gotta be able to perform when a play breaks down, including pass pro. If Goff sucks at this, he’s not a true Super Bowl QB in my opinion. $94 million in dead money is scary.
Brady Not Moving?
Earlier I felt fairly confident that stories about the possibility of Brady moving on from the Pats was a product of Brady’s team to gain leverage. But now I’m having doubts. If my first read was accurate, Team Brady is doing a great job of bluffing.
I’ve heard the Giants mentioned as a possibility. In terms of wanting to win, that move doesn’t make much sense to me. I want Brady to a team that can have success, if not win a Super Bowl. The Giants aren’t one of those teams that comes to mind. (If Brady took the Giants to the Super Bowl, that would be pretty amazing, though.)
I like Brady going to the Raiders, but I’d be concerned about the plan to replace him. They’d have to draft a QB or get another FA. If they could get Mariota for cheap, I’d be for that.
I’m also hearing the Titans are a possibility. If Henry stays, that would be an intriguing pick. (On a side note, now that Dean Pees has retired, I like the idea of Wade Phillips going there.)
I still think the Bucs would be a pretty good landing spot, too.
What about any surprise landing spots–a team that might be a decent fit that know one’s thinking about? It would be cool if Brady went to the Dolphins and lead them over the Patriots, but I can’t really see that happening.
People have mentioned the Colts and even the 49ers. Those would be intriguing fits, but while I can see the Colts taking Brady, I can’t see the 49ers doing that. That would be a surprise me. Cowboys would also be a surprise move, too, but that would be an intriguing move.
How about this: the Rams. Rams are about to guarantee a lot of money for Goff. If they decide this is a bad move, they get Brady and draft a QB. (The problem is that they don’t have a lot of draft picks.) The other bad part of this scenario is that Brad would have to learn the west coast offense. Then again, I assume he’d have to learn a new system for a lot of the places he went to. (Does Jason Garrett run a Erdhardt-Perkins system? As a Parcells guy, I assume he does. If so, that might make for a good transition. I’m not sure about the OC with the Titans.)
I wanted to comment on some of Cowherd’s comments:
1. Cowherd mocks those who reject the possibility of Brady going to the Cowboys. The mocking is especially annoying to me because he fails to address one crucial point–namely, if the Cowboys take Brady they would be essentially giving up on Prescott. (I can’t see them keeping both.) Brady might love to play for the Cowboys, but why in the world would the Cowboys give up on Prescott? Because he’s asking too much? OK, but if they take Brady, what’s the plan for when Brady leaves? Unless they have a good QB, they’ll be starting from square one, and that seems like a bad plan.
By the way, what Cowherd says would apply to the 49ers, and my response would be essentially the same one I gave for the Cowboys.
This also applies somewhat to the Raiders, but I tend to want the Raiders to move on from Carr.
2. Cowherd assumes Brady wants to play in a weaker division. That may be true, and assuming this makes sense. I wouldn’t assume this or at least not treat this as a fact. Whatever the case, a part of me would love it if Brady went to a pretty tough division–by choice. If he won in that circumstance that would be a great story. For example, suppose he went to the 49ers. If he could get the 49ers to win that division and then go to the Super Bowl that would be pretty impressive, even though the 49ers have a really good roster and a good head coach. My regard for him would be elevated if he chose to play in tough division, almost regardless of how much success he had.
If the Cowboys don’t want to sign Dak, they will need a stop gap QB. Why do you think Brady wouldn’t be a option for the stop gap QB? Are stop gap QB normally cheaper that’s why? I don’t necessarily think that’s true. I think if Brady is only looking for a long term deal (4-5 years), I would say that it wouldn’t seem probable that the Cowboys do that deal. But if Brady would settle for a 2-3 year deal at something lower than 30 mil, maybe closer to 25, I can see the Cowboys going for that if they don’t want to pay Dak 35 mil or maybe even more.
Stop right there–this would surprise me. This wouldn’t surprise you? I mean, it’s believable that they’re wary of paying Dak a lot, but I took what you wrote to mean they’re comfortable moving on from him, or even more extreme, they actually want to move on. (I’d be utterly shocked if the latter were true.)
That’s why Brady going to Dallas doesn’t make sense to me. Now, if they’re open to moving on from Prescott, then Brady makes absolute sense. But what I would ask (and I’m asking the same thing if Brady goes to the 49ers or Raiders)–what’s the plan for when Brady leaves? If any of these teams snag young QB with decent chance for becoming good (e.g., Mariota), then that would make sense. Or if they’re confident they can get that QB in the draft (but this seems dicey).
I’m somewhat comfortable with the Raiders doing this because I’m somewhat confident that Carr is not the guy (or at least I’m ready for them to move on; actually if the Cowboys or 49ers could get Carr and Brady that might be a good deal).
To me, Prescott, Garoppolo, and Goff land in a gray area for me. They seem really close to being at the Cousins level–and they all could be greater than that. (Of the three, I’m probably the least optimistic about Goff and the most optimistic about Prescott.) Bailing on the first two, right now–especially for a short term answer like Brady–seems very risky–risky if they don’t have any solid, young prospect waiting in the wings. You don’t agree with that?
By the way, Prescott reminds me a little of Steve McNair, except I feel like he might be better. (I’m mystified by those who think McNair was a hall of fame candidate.)
Yeah I do not think the Cowboys will give up on Dak. Not this year anyway. They might after couple franchise tags, sort of like Cousins. But you sort of went down the road of what if Dak leaves… So I was more responding to that. Because you wrote, “… what’s the plan for when Brady leaves?”. I think the Cowboys could sign Brady to a 2-3 year deal, and still draft a QB with a high pick, especially if they can get some picks for Dak. To me, the only thing that makes sense in the Dak leaving scenario, is if the Cowboys can get picks for him.
For me, I understand the risk of giving up on a Dak without a viable option on your team right now. However, if the Cowboys could sign (and this is what I said in a previous post) Byron Jones, Amari Cooper, and maybe even both Randall Cobb and Robert Quinn from the savings of not signing Dak and get picks for Dak (maybe a one and a two), it would be worth it. Dak is not Mahomes. He cannot carry his team almost by himself.
On a completely side note, Cole McDonald was a combine wonder this past week. He was the fastest QB and ran faster than Jalen Hurts (or virtually tied), and he was the best at the vertical leap. Baltimore should pick him up as their back up. Why pay a RGIII, if they can try get any athletic guy to be the back up.
Was he a good ball carrier, though? The thing about Lamar–it’s not just his speed, but his slipperiness that makes that offense so effective.
Without the baggage, I’d rather have Kaepernick (but he’s not really elusive).
I just had the impression you thought more highly of Prescott, or at least you wouldn’t be as willing to take your chances with a replacement via the draft. Prescott may not be able to carry a team, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be a really good QB–one that can win the Cowboys Super Bowls. If you’re going to be willing to move on, you better be confident, he’s not that guy–or confident you can find that guy relatively quickly. I’m not sure the Cowboys will do that, even if they add picks–especially if they do well with the stop-gap QB.
My sense is that the team’s lackluster performance last year had more to do with coaching or organization dysfunction than Prescott or the quality of the players. Take this out, and I could see Prescott being a QB that could win a Super Bowl. I’m more confident he can be that guy than Carr at this point.
I do think very highly of Dak. If signing a 5-year deal, off the top of my head, I would have the following:
Tier 1
Mahomes
Lamar
Tier 2
Russell Wilson
Wentz
Dak
Watson
Stafford
Tier 3
Rodgers
Cousins
So that’s my five-year projection, although maybe Wilson would still be a Tier 1. It’s close, but I would definitely chance Mahomes over Wilson for five years.
That being said though, how many teams won it all after they signed their QB to a huge deal? If Dak signs and becomes the highest paid QB, I find it hard to believe the Cowboys can win it all if they lose all the guys I listed over time. Maybe in year 4 or 5 of Dak’s contract, when the cap grows, it will be feasible, but it would be hard to do it in the next three years, imo. I would rather see the Cowboys try and sign Rivers on a short term deal if they could keep those other guys, while still drafting an early round QB. That’s not the optimal as well (ie: spending draft picks on QB), but I think the better of the two options.
You mean, you would be willing to walk away from Wilson because the contract is too high? Walking away from a good QB–taking a chance that you’ll be able to a replacement–that’s gutsy. With Prescott and Garoppolo, I think the situation is a bit murkier–I’m not as sure those guys are really good. But I’d lean towards not walking away from them. The floor for Prescott seems to be that he can win a Super Bowl with a good supporting cast. It would be hard to take Brady and walk away from that.
By the way, I just saw a report from Tom Curran that the Brady to the 49ers is a possibility. He also mentioned swapping the QBs. I find this really hard to believe. But it would be interesting if it happens. We can see what Belichick and Brady can do in a new situation.
I will just point out that the Cowboys came close to choosing Paxton Lynch over Dak Prescott.
Having said that, if you’re going to move on from Prescott (or Garoppolo or Goff), this seems like a really good time to do it, as there may be a lot of good QBs availability, like Rivers, Brady, Newton, and also some with potential, like Carr and Mariota.
I also think Flacco would be good to pick up. (I think Tampa Bay could be a good landing spot for him. If I could get Flacco at a relatively cheap price, I’d definitely take him over Winston.)
I think for the Tier 1 guys (including Wilson although his age is a concern), I would sign them right now to a five year deal, because they don’t necessarily need a lot of “great” pieces around them to win it all. I’m not sure a Tyreek Hill on another team would be great for example. The guys in Tier 2 and Tier 3 will have to depend on the situation. For example: How much other guys I have/want to sign? Is there another QB out there to get on the short term? How close am I to winning a Super Bowl?
Yes it is very gutsy to walk away from a legitimate starting QB. But it’s also gutsy to sign a semi-unproven guy (or in the case of Dak, a guy who needs a lot of good to great pieces around him) to a huge contract as well. Minnesota is in the worse shape against the cap in the NFL. Cousins has a lot to do with that. And now Minnesota will have to struggle to improve being they cannot sign free agents and they will have to lose some of their better players.
You mentioned Paxton Lynch, but I think few guys had a first round grade on him. I think the Ringer guys mentioned once, that first round QBs hit about 50% of the time. I’m assuming “hit” means they become a starter for a good amount of time. That’s okay odds if you are willing to use your first round pick consistently every year to find a QB. Again like I said before though, that is a downside. You don’t want to “waste” your draft capital year after year chasing that QB.
I’d say that 5 years is juuuuust at the limit of what I would give Wilson right now. Guy never misses a game. If I thought my team was close to a serious Super Bowl run, like say a three-year window, I’d happily sign him for 5 and if I got that fourth and fifth year out of him, I’d call it gravy. As the Rams showed last-last season, sometimes you just have to go for it.
It sounds like you’d seriously consider not signing Wilson for five years, and you’d be totally content to lose him after three. After three years, Wilson would be 34, after five, 36. Unless he sustains serious injuries, I’d expect he’d still be playing at a pretty high level at that point. I’m kinda surprised to hear you (and Don’s) willingness to move on from a really good QB.
Not even. I said it’s the limit. I would hesitate at six. Long-term big-money contracts kill teams.
You said, “juuuuust at the limit,” which made it sound like a 5 year contract would be a close call.
To me, guaranteed amount, not the length of the contract, is the crucial issue. If a team can cut a player after one or two years without owing the player much after being cut, then the years after that second year doesn’t matter much.
I just want to say that I came up with my Los Angeles trade to Carolina for Cam Newton idea all by myself, but in this week’s Mina Kimes Show Featuring Lenny, Mina said the same thing: that she wants Cam to go to the Chargers. Man, I should spit these takes for a LIVING.
Actually I forgot about Cam on my list above. I would definitely sign him if he was healthy. I would say lower end tier 2.
The one thing I’d worry about for Newton or any QB going to the Chargers is the pass pro. Cam’s banged up, too.
Don,
I know what you’re saying, and I agree some QBs don’t require as much support to be really successful (but that can easily be overstated as well). Still, for those who do require a lot, is it your feeling that it’s generally better to not pay these QBs and take your chances with finding a QB in the draft? Let’s take Kirk Cousins. Should the Vikings not have paid him as much as they did? To me, he’s the type of QB that needs a great run game, really good pass catchers, and a good defense. But if he gets that, he can win it all. (I think Cousins would have given the 49ers a better chance of securing the victory against the Chiefs.) Without that, the chances are a lot less likely. But there are way more of these QBs than the ones that don’t need as much. (By the way, I don’t think Tyreek Hill is a great example. He may not do as well in other teams, but the Chiefs offense looks significantly less effective without him in my opinion.)
If you don’t pay these QBs, your team will experience a lot more volatility. You’d go through periods, potentially multiple seasons, with a bad QB and a terrible team. When you do hit on a QB, you have a chance of really building a great team. That doesn’t guarantee actually succeeding at building a good team, let along guaranteeing winning a Super Bowl, though. You have to hit on draft picks and free agents—something far from a given, especially if you’re not picking in the top 15.
Let’s say you succeed at this, but your QB needs a lot of support. If you move on when it’s time to pay, you go back to square one again. That seems really disruptive. Compare that to getting and paying QBs like Rodgers, Brees, etc. Those teams can consistently be playoff teams. It’s hard to win the Super Bowl, but is it a lot harder than the alternative?
I do think that the challenge is greater with a young QB whose full potential is unknown—like Prescott, Garoppolo, and Goff. I would not want my team to have those QBs. They could each become significantly better than they are now, or not and may be worse than we think. That’s a tough place to be in my opinion.
(In my view, the Bears, Colts, and Raiders are in better situation, in that moving on seems like the better decision. I wouldn’t rule out that each of their QBs could develop into really good QBs, but I’m skeptical enough that I would be comfortable moving on.
On a side note, I saw that there is a dark horse candidate for Phillip Rivers. To me, the Rams would be a decent possibility—or at least I think the Rams should seriously consider moving on from Goff. The current contract will soon guarantee a lot of money. That seems really risky. If I were a Rams fan, I think I might like taking Rivers and then trying to find a replacement. But I’m more close to thinking Goff is not a Super Bowl QB.)
I’ll say one last thing. Whether a team has a great QB, a good one, or a bad one, ultimately, doesn’t a team’s ability to win a Super Bowl depend heavily on hitting in draft and free agency and successfully developing those players? Seattle’s ability to win will hinge almost entirely on 2-3 of their young players emerging and getting 1-2 impact players in free agency. I feel like that applies to most teams. Maybe it doesn’t apply to KC or SF as much, but that won’t last long.
I brought him up because the Cowboys came very close to drafting him—and probably would have if Denver hadn’t traded for Seattle’s pick. My understanding is that Dallas called Seattle right after this deal was made. I’m not sure if this is accurate, but if it is, then the Cowboys came very close to having Lynch instead of Prescott, and the past several seasons could have been a lot worst.
Did they distinguish between picks near the top from those near the bottom of the first round? I gotta believe that more of the hits occur within the first fifteen picks versus the last 17. And if you have two or three drafts where you’re picking a QB, you likely had two or three mediocre or bad seasons.
Edit
I thought of another scenario for the Cowboys–get Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota. I would guess they could get both for relatively cheap, although maybe that’s wrong. Flacco should be relatively cheap, though, and that’s what makes him attractive. The Cowboys could focus on signing the other players. If they go to a run-first offense, I could see Flacco having success. But McCarthy’s probably not going to run that type of offense.
I also kinda like the idea of the Buccaneers getting Flacco and someone like Carr or drafting a player. Flacco’s strength is the deep ball (or used to be) and that’s key to Arians’s offense. Last year, the had a run-first mentality. I’m not sure Flacco’s skills beyond the deep ball are a good fit for Arians, though. But Flacco shouldn’t be expensive, so that’s a plus.
On another note, I thought of another idea that kinda appeals to me–namely, Andy Dalton going to the Patriots. Dalton is good enough to make winning a Super Bowl plausible. At the same time, he’s never played well in the playoffs. If the Patriots have a lot of success with him, including winning a Super Bowl, that will be a huge feather Belichick’s cap (and Dalton’s). (But I will say this: without a significant upgrade to the Patriot roster, especially on offense, I doubt they would win a Super Bowl, almost regardless of who the QB is.)
I don’t think I said it’s always better not to sign your tier 2 or 3 QB to a long term contract. It’s situational. If Dallas couldn’t get something back for Dak, then I would say that’s a deal breaker. If the scenario is Dak walks away and Dallas gets a third round conditional pick, that would be insane. But what if a Miami or Indy would give Dallas two first round picks or a first round, second round, and another pick. I think I would chance it and take that deal.
Would you say the Rams or the Vikings are in way better shape than the Dolphins or maybe the Bucs in terms of winning it all in the next three years? Maybe, but at least I would be more hopeful being a Dolphin and Buc fan.
I didn’t think much of Flacco even when he was winning Super Bowls so I wouldn’t want him. He has some talent, but his stoic style and seemingly “no care” attitude isn’t a great recipe for success, imo. I wouldn’t be all that happy with Mariota either, even though I cheer for him. I think Rivers or Brady would be my choice. They might be slightly more expensive than Flacco, but I want a proven guy and a real stop gap guy.
Dallas is in great shape in terms of the cap. So it’s possible that they can sign all the guys I mentioned, like Byron Jones, Amari, and Cobb. But if they do, they will be in the same boat as the Vikings where in the next few years, all you are concerned about is shedding players and not getting any new ones.
How likely do you think this type of deal would be? Miami is decent position to get a young, good QB. Indy can get a decent stop gap QB or even a QB with potential–like Mariota or Carr for probably a lot less, too.
Still, let’s say a team like the Colts gave the Cowboys that deal, I’m a little surprised you’d be willing to take the gamble. Indy’s likely a .500 team or better, so their first round pick might not be that high.
Here’s the two scenarios:
Option 1:
You pay Dak and struggle to get and keep enough talent to win a Super Bowl. However, while you may not win Super Bowls, the Cowboys should be a solid team while you have Dak.
Option 2:
You move on from Dak, and either hit on a QB soon or don’t. If you hit you could have a rather large Super Bowl window. If you don’t, and you continue to miss, you could be a bad team for several years–like the Dolphins or Buccaneers.
Option 1 seems more attractive unless you’re fairly confident that Prescott is not really a Super Bowl QB. I’m fairly confident Carr is not that guy, even though I can’t rule out that possibility. So I’m comfortable with the Raiders moving on from him.
Next year, the Rams and Vikings have a better chance than the Dolphins–after that it depends on how well the Dolphins build their roster. They’re in good position, but whether they capitalize on that is far from a guarantee. As for the Buccaneers, they’re my early dark horse, if they secure a good QB. So their chances may be close to the Rams and Vikings. But I don’t think the Vikings are in bad shape. The Rams cap and draft situation may be worse, so I don’t now.
One other thing to think about: Would you have rather been the Dolphins and Buccaneers for the last three seasons over the Vikings and Rams? I guess the answer is obvious, but the point is that getting to a favorable position likely stemmed from having several bad seasons. (See the 49ers.) Certainly a team has a chance of gaining a big Super Bowl window if they have several bad seasons in a row. And if you’re OK with that, then that’s a decent approach. Then again, a team still has to hit on and keep good players, which, as the Browns have shown, is no guarantee.
I actually like Flacco’s stoicism–in big moments, that stoic style is more of a plus than a minus in my view. The thing is, he’s a QB that needs a good supporting cast–like a Cousins. But I think he’s shown that if you give him that, he can make the handful of throws you need to to win. For example, I would like the 49ers chances to secure the Super Bowl victory if they had Flacco rather than Garoppolo.
The Cowboys have the surrounding talent. They can be a good run-first/defense oriented team. With Flacco their window might be bigger than one or two years.
As for Flacco’s lack of success, he had awful pass catchers in Baltimore after the Super Bowl. I think losing his favorite TE (can’t remember his name now) really hurt him, too. And except for the year that Kubiak installed a good run game, the Ravens didn’t have a good run game. The situation was similar when he went to the Broncos. Shoot, if Flacco was on the 2017 Jaguars, I would have liked their chances to win it all.
I don’t think this is as bad as you think, and it’s not worse than not having a Super Bowl QB in my opinion. The Vikings and even the Seahawks are basically need two or three players to pop and they have a good chance of winning the Super Bowl. That’s not a bad place to be.
I heard more than one sportscaster mention a scenario to trade Dak instead of signing him to a huge contract, but it’s all theories and didn’t mention any team names, so how probable, I’m not sure. Dallas would have to franchise Dak first though, and then trade him. But whatever picks Dallas gets, even if it’s lower in the first round, they could package their picks and move up if they wanted a QB in this draft. Or do the same for next year’s draft.
In your Option 2, I would say signing a good stop gap QB would be necessary so hopefully they don’t struggle with a brand new QB.
I’m surprised that you think Dak is that much better than Carr. For the longest time, you seem to be advocating for Carr and sort of doubting Dak. Regardless though the schism between the two QBs must be very large for you to say that you think Dak should be resigned (possibly making him the highest paid QB) and Carr should be dropped even though he is currently under contract.
In terms of both Carr and Goff, yes more guaranteed money may be looming for these guys, but I’m probably on the other side and think that giving up on these guys now is a mistake. If like Dak, they can get something in a trade, I’ll be for that, but why would a team trade for them and take on their contracts. If Carr and Goff is released, I’m pretty sure a chunk of their contract will still be counted against the team’s respective cap, and possibly for another 2-3 more years (not super sure how it all works). So even though it’s a smaller cap hit, it would be at the cost of having no QB in return. So let’s say at that point they did get a Rivers, the cap hit from Carr and Goff plus the amount they would have to pay Rivers would probably be equal to the cap hit just for Carr and Goff or maybe even more. Not to mention that as the contract goes on and the cap keeps going up, the effect of Carr’s and Goff’s salaries against the cap, goes down.
I’m not sure about the Seahawk cap situation, but I heard the Vikings are currently over the cap. So not only will they have to hit on a draft pick, but at the same time they are looking to get rid of some very good players which also needs to be replaced.
How much stock do you put in this? I put very little. It just feels like an attempt at leverage by the Dallas FO. (All the rumors around Brady feel like that too–but I admit, if Brady’s team is manufacturing this for leverage, they’re doing an incredible job.) It’s not that I’m certain Dak is great–I tend to think that Jones thinks very highly of him, though.
Yeah, I should have mentioned that. And this is a good year to find a really good stop gap QB. The uncertainty relates to the finding the QB for the future.
The difference between Prescott and Carr, for me, is that I’m more certain that Carr is not a great QB, and more comfortable moving on from him as a result. With Prescott, I’m starting to lean towards the idea that his ceiling is a QB that can win a Super Bowl, the he’ll depend on a supporting cast more than a few other QBs, similar to Cousins. Prescott could actually turn out to be a little less than this. Then again, he could be more than that, too. I’m not sure if he’s a guy that can make the handful of throws and protect the football in the biggest games/moments.
I think the difference with me and you is the comfort level moving on from Prescott. The level of comfort you seem to have, based on these posts, seems higher than what I would have expected. This expectation is based on my sense that you actually think more highly of Prescott than I do, which is really weird. If I were a Cowboys fan I’d be much more anxious moving on from him, even if the team could get some draft picks for him.
By the way, the circumstances at the start of both Carr’s and Prescott’s career were very different, and I think that explains the discrepancy you were questioning. Prescott came in a perfect situation–wasn’t a high draft pick, came to a team with a clear starter, and a great offensive supporting cast. He played well in those circumstances, but I needed to see how he performed in less than perfect situations, especially after year one when defenses were better prepared to defend him. So while many were gushing about him, I had a more wait-and-see approach. I didn’t see enough to be confident he was great (like I did with Russell Wilson’s first year).
With Carr, he came to a bad team and continued to play with a bad team. He was never great, but within that context I thought he did well–and showed promise. With better team, he seemed to do a little better–but not as much as I liked, but I thought he was still young. Then he had some injuries, so I was more patient. This year, I feel like the injuries didn’t sufficiently explain the problems I saw. He’s still making boneheaded mistakes I thought he would get over, and his footwork hasn’t really developed much too, even with someone like Gruden. (I feel somewhat similar about Mariota, but I’m hoping I’m wrong about this.) I feel like I’ve seen enough to feel confident that he’s not the guy. I think I’ll get to that level of confidence, positive or negative, with Prescott by the end of next year.
Goff’s money was like $94 million guaranteed, I think. The Rams would be locking themselves in for several years. If Carr’s going to get a similar amount, I’m even more certain the Raiders should move on.
Yeah, I don’t think the Vikings are in a great cap situation. Perhaps, they have to have two mediocre or bad seasons to work out of this. I feel like the Saints were in a similar situation a few years ago as well. I think I’d prefer to be in the Vikings current situation, then in a situation without a good QB (and more cap space to get players).
FWIW, the guys I heard say, “Dak could be traded” were just spewing stuff or throwing out theories sort of like what I did. It’s not like it’s something they heard from Cowboy camp. In fact the latest one I heard had Dak going to Miami for their two first round picks this upcoming draft. But it’s not like I, or the other guys that said it, thinks a Dak trade is something that’s very probable. In fact I would say less than a 5% chance. I just wrote the part about hearing other broadcasters say it, to say that it is a possibility, as in not something I just made up on my own.
Welp. It looks like I was wrong about Brady not moving. Apparently, he wrote something on social media saying he’s moving on. The two teams mentioned as landing sites are the Bucs and Chargers. I’m intrigued by Brady going to the Bucs. I didn’t like the move to the Chargers earlier, but the Chargers made a move to shore up their OL. If they do more to upgrade the OL, I think the Chargers will be a good landing spot.
The Colts not being mentioned is a bit surprising.
Turning to Belichick, I’ve mentioned that I’d like to see him get a QB that would really highlight the greatness of Belichick’s coaching. Jameis Winston is a guy that came to mind. If he cleans up his ball security, and the Patriots win a Super Bowl, that might say a lot about Belichick. Winston does have talent, though. I think if Belichick wins with Dalton that will say something, too. Tannehill and Bridgewater would have been other guys. Also, not just win a Super Bowl–but if those guys put up really good numbers without really a top notch roster, that would say a lot.
On another note…Marcus Mariota to the Raiders. A part of me has wanted Mariota to go a west coast offense. My hope is that he can get his feet right. The problem is that I’ve felt that Carr needed to work on his feet, too, but I haven’t seem much progress since Gruden has been there. (I would have preferred Mariota work with Mike McCarthy. Also: Andy Reid with the Chiefs might have been good. Going to the Vikings or 49ers might have been better, with Kubiak and Shanahan, respectively. Reid might be the best at developing or rehabilitating a QB. Kubiak and Shanahan–with the wide zone and stretch bootlegs would be a good fit for Mariota. I hope Gruden uses Mariota’s roll out ability. Early on, Mariota looked great at passing the ball while rolling out.) But I really hope Mariota can regain his confidence and develop. It would be awesome if he can succeed with the Raiders.
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I’m seeing Rivers to Colts is being close to being done.
Also, Bridgewater to the Panthers.
I know the Raiders wanted to get rid of Carr, but I’m guessing it will not be that easy. Mariota will be the back-up? Thinking about it more, that would be great if Mariota could be a back-up for a year.
Yes, they have to be thinking of Mariota as the backup, unless someone out there thinks they’re the Carr reclaimer, and they’re in talks with the Raiders to get him for a deal.
Raiders also got Cory Littleton from the Rams. He isn’t super expensive too, but from what I know LBs don’t make a whole lot. I know this is the QB thread, but was replying to the Raider talk.
The Raiders also got another LB, Nick Kwiatkowski. (I’m unfamiliar with him.) i hope both Littleton and Kwiatkowski are good. The Raiders have been weak at the LB spot for a long time.
Yeah, my understanding is that Mariota will be the backup, but some commentators have said speculated that Carr may be on a short leash and Gruden will allow Mariota to do what Tannehill did to him.
I like the idea of Mariota sitting as a back-up, but I wish I had more confidence in Gruden as someone who could develop a QB.
Mitchell likes Cam Newton with the Chargers. I can see that. What are some other good landing spots for him?
I’m intrigued by him going Chicago, assuming he’s healthy. I would think he could lead them to the Super Bowl, especially if the defense is one of the best in the league. Are there any other good fits? The Jaguars might need the help, but it wouldn’t be great for Newton.
What about the Dolphins? Or even the Bengals? If Newton’s health wasn’t a question mark, I think this would be decent moves by either team–unless they’re really sure about Burrow, Tua, or another young QB. I wonder how much Newton would cost?
Oh, I guess Washington might be another spot–although this depends on how Washington feels about Haskins.
I think Indy should have chosen Cam over Rivers, but like you said if he’s healthy. Here’s the thing with Cam though, he is not a free agent, so he is not “free”. A team will have to trade for him. Is Carolina willing to let him go for cheap? I’m guessing only if hardly any teams show interest.
Jags still have Foles right? I know they were trying to shop him, but I’m guessing with this market there are no takers (sort of like Carr and the Raiders). My guess is a team like the Dolphins or Bengals will go and get Cam if they don’t have to give up too much. Although I don’t know how much more years Cam has on his current contract which would make those teams hesitate, because their rookie QBs, assuming they are going to draft one, will have to start by the following season.
What about Pittsburgh? Big Ben is coming back for sure? I think Mitchell is probably closest to right with San Diego depending on the “trade” price.
How much, in terms of draft picks, do you guys think Carolina would be willing to accept in a trade for Newton? What would be too high? I tend to think anything above a 3rd and a 3rd might be too high. Another factor is that team doctors aren’t allowed to examine players–or that’s my understanding. So, team’s would be taking an additional chance on him. A part of me worries that he won’t play much longer.
The thing about Newton is that his athleticism and power–both in terms of his running and throwing–have been crucial parts of his game, while accuracy has been a weakness. If he loses power in both respects, what’s the chances his accuracy will improve? I don’t like those chances. And how good will he be if his arm strength diminishes?
The way people are talking, the Dolphins and Bengals are going for a young QB, which makes sense. But if the Bengals got a healthy Cam, and picked Chase Young–man, they could be formidable. I thought they had a solid DL last year, and adding Young could have similar impact Bosa had for the 49ers.
I think Roethlisberger is coming back, but if I were the Steelers I wouldn’t want to trade a broken down QB for another broken down one.
Foles is being traded to Chicago. That’s not the move I think anyone expected.
I don’t think it’s too surprising. Then again, I’m someone who believes that the Bears should move on from Trubisky; or at the very least bring in someone who could compete and maybe replace him, a la Tannehill. I would have tried to get someone better. But if you did that, then might be tantamount to giving up on Trubisky, and that’s apparently not what the Bears want to do. If this the case, then I could see them not wanting to bring in a proven starter–e.g., Andy Dalton or Derek Carr. You might as well give up on Trubisky. Foles shouldn’t crush Trubisky’s confidence. Now, it’s not great for his confidence, but at this point even the Bears might feel like making a now-or-never ultimatum to Trubisky–i.e., if you falter, we won’t hesitate to put in Foles. (Carr might be in a similar situation.)
I feel like the Bears are, or already have, wasted an opportunity to make a Super Bowl run. Also, I’m not a real big believer in Matt Nagy.
I’m hearing Broncos will be releasing Flacco. A part of me feels like the Bears should have gotten him over Foles. I hesitate because Nagy and the Bears offense don’t seem well-suited for Flacco. On the other hand, the Raiders run game and Flacco would seem like a good match, although Gruden’s offense might not be. I sort of feel like the Buccaneers would have been a good fit for Flacco. If the Jaguars are going to be run oriented, I think he’d be a good fit with the Jaguars, but that team seems like a bad landing spot for any player. Oh, Flacco to the Titans would be good. I might like that more than Flacco to the Bucs. I think Flacco is better than Tannehill.
I saw Flacco play with Emmanuel Sanders in Denver. He was just okay. He seem far from a guy you can hang your hat on. I think you think Tannehill is worse than he is. I’ve always said Tannehill is my “median” QB, meaning he’s perfectly average. I would say that the one time I saw Flacco play last year, he looked less than average.
If you mean you can’t really build an offense around Flacco, I agree–and it’s something I’ve repeatedly said about him. He’s in the same category as a Cousins in my opinion. Put him on a good run-based offense, and a good defense, and I think he can win a Super Bowl.
When Flacco lost Dennis Pitta and Gary Kubiak, he played on very depleted offenses in my opinion. The Ravens attempted to build a more pass-oriented offense around Flacco–without good targets. The Broncos situation wasn’t a lot better, either. Do you think Tannehill would have played better on the 2019 Bronco team?
By the way, another good landing spot for Flacco might be with the 49ers as a backup, or even the Vikings. If I were those teams, I’d love to have him as a backup. (I wouldn’t mind having him as a backup in Seattle, too, but I think he’d be better fit with Kubiak or Shanahan’s offenses.)
What about the Buccaneers as a spot for Flacco? I could see him working out there. Or even the Saints to back up Brees.
Also, if you use Reid’s tiers to pick average QBs, I’d probably put Tannehill near the top of that middle tier. He has something a lot of average QBs don’t, which is impressive athleticism. The guy makes throws I think only Mahomes and Jackson can make.
I really like him going to the Bucs–and I would have liked the move even if Brady didn’t go there. At worst, the Bucs could draft a QB, and he’d be a place holder. Saints are a decent spot, too, but I would prefer 49ers and Vikings. One argument against these moves is that they’d want a younger QB to develop and would only carry two QBs on the roster. (I think this is the logic the Seahawks would use. Then again, Geno Smith was their backup last year. I’d prefer Flacco over Geno.)
I’m not sure we’re thinking about average QBs in the same way, but there seems to be a lot of QBs who fall into the category of good game managers–QBs that you can’t really build an offense around (e.g., installing a spread offense and throwing the ball a lot), but they can have success in a good run-based offense with good pass-catchers. What’s weird is that a few years ago, these QBs seemed pretty rare, but now it seems like we have a lot more of them. Here are some examples:
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garappolo
Jared Goff
Ryan Tannehill
Joe Flacco
Case Keenum
I’d probably put Andy Dalton, and Eli Manning in that list. You could make a case Dak Prescott is in this group as well, but I think he has a foot in the next tier. What’s interesting about many of these QBs is that when they’re in a really good run-based offense and they have weapons, they can look as good as the Mahomes, Rodgers of the world. But I don’t think they would do so well if you built the offense around them.
Brady might be falling into this category now, too.
Cam Newton officially released by the Panthers. He’s a free agent.
To me, his health is the main issue. If he’s healthy, there a bunch of teams that should go after him. The Chargers seem like a good place, even with health questions. Unless he’s too pricey, what do they have to lose? Tyrod is not a better option in my view. Even if they draft a QB, unless that guy is great from the get go, use Newton as a place holder.
The same applies to the Dolphins. And if Newton is healthy, and the additions to the roster pan out, they could conceivably win the division.
Going to Bengals is tantalizing, too, because the Bengals could use their pick to build the team around him (e.g, they could get Chase Young–and they have some nice pieces on defense). If they’re not super confident Burrow is really good, Newton would be tempting.
What’s a good landing spot for Jameis Winston? Is there any place where he’d have a chance to start? I guess Dolphins and Bengals. With Winston, I’m very close to the point of saying his turnover problem won’t be fixed–sort of like Jay Cutler. Having said that, I could see a team taking a flyer on him, using him as a backup. The upside is there.
If I were trying to fix Winston, I would consider two approaches: 1) put him on a good run-based offense. That is, an offense with a limited amount of throws, or 2) get him to throw a lot of easy passes, including checkdowns. These should be safe passes, and by doing this he can get into a groove and gain his confidence. I think in Cutler’s best year with the Bears, under Marc Trestman, this was Trestman’s approach. I believe Mike McCoy used a similar approach with Rivers. Speaking of which, Rivers’s ball security has declined quite a bit. When he goes to the Colts, I wonder if Reich will emphasize a lot of short passes and checkdowns. (With McCoy, the type of pass that stood out was the shallow cross. They seem to run a lot of yard shallow crosses.) I have a hunch that Rivers’s ball security can get a lot better with this type of approach (or using the first approach I mentioned).
By the way, I’m not sure I mentioned this, but while I like Bridgewater, I don’t think he’s that good of a QB. I’d put him the game-manager category, and even if you surrounded him with great talent, I don’t think he’d be one of the better QBs.