The playoffs start today. Who are you cheering for? I’m rooting for the Steelers and Chargers. I would not be unhappy if the Lions, Bills, or Vikings win the Super Bowl, though. By the way, I didn’t realize the Eagles and Packers play each other in the first round. Man, that seems like a raw deal for both teams.
Chargers@Texans
Chargers start strong, and the Texans look a bit lost or overwhelmed, especially on offense. Then backed by their own end zone, the Texans drive down–from a huge 3rd down conversion, which started as a botched snap–and score a TD. That was a huge difference (although prior to this, the Texans defense really clamped down. They shut down the run, and the secondary blanketed the Charger WRs, and they put a pressure on Herbert. Rarely did Herbert have any easy throws.
Herbert had 3 INTS all year. He has 3 in this game (and I stopped watching midway in the 4th).
The Charger defense did get a bunch of turnovers, but they still lost. The Texans defense played a dominant game.
Steelers@Ravens
Man, the Ravens really took it to the Steelers. 49 rushing attempts for 299 Dang. The Steelers defense (and maybe the entire team) face a big challenge recovering from this, not just from this game, but the last four. The Ravens stomped on their pride and manhood. This is not just a normal beat down.
And the defense isn’t only to blame. The offense has to hold the ball longer and reduce the defense’s time on the field. The Steelers couldn’t really run the ball, although this was partly because the game got out of hand. Russ fought, but it wasn’t enough.
Lamar only threw 21 passes. If the Ravens can keep running the ball well, keeping the pass attempts down like this, I do think the Ravens can win it all.
Thoughts on
Broncos-Bills:
I feel like the Broncos can win. They have the defense that can do it. If they can control the ball and limit possessions to the Bills offense, that seems like the formula.
Commanders-Bucs
I like rooting for both teams, and I’m not sure who I’m rooting for here. I also don’t have a good idea of who will win this. It seems like it’ll be close call.
Vikings-Rams
I’m rooting for the Vikings, but if they lose, that extends the Rams season giving them less time to prepare for next season and it’s another game of wear and tear on their team. So I’ll see that as a positive.
Post-game remarks
Broncos@Bills
I said that the Broncos could win if they control the ball. Really, that’s what the Bills did, largely by running the ball, looking dominant in terms of time of possession. I feel like this really helped the Bills defense play at a high level. Running the ball well has been a key story for many of the playoff games so far.
Packers@Eagles
I felt like this match-up was unfair to both teams–unfair because both looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The game reaffirmed this, maybe leaving me more impressed with the Packers, not to take away anything from the Eagles who, with the slight exception of Hurts passing the ball, look really good as well. The Packers are just a very well-rounded team. If Love can protect the football, they can beat anyone.
The biggest play to me was the fumble on the kickoff return to start the game. That gave the Eagles a 7 point lead pretty quickly, which quickly turned into a 10 point lead. (The Eagles would also get the ball back in the second half.) The Packers INT also hurt as well. All of this created too big a hole to fill.
One last note. Josh Jacobs is one of my favorite players, and he played like his life depended on it or something. Maybe he was tired about hearing about how great Saquan is, but he ran like he was possessed. Had the Packers won, the near TD run would become iconic, I think. The guy just as the total package–speed, power, deceptive slipperiness–and he played with his hair on fire.
Commanders@Bucs
I wasn’t really paying attention to the reasons for winning/losing in this back-and-forth game. Both teams seemed fairly evenly matched. I feel like Mayfield’s fumble was a big factor. What also stood out was that Quinn was incredibly aggressive on 4th down. Maybe he didn’t trust his K or D?
I didn’t watch as much football as I normally would when the Cowboys are competitive, but I thought there were only four teams that were impressive most of the year: Ravens, Bills, Lions, and Eagles. This is not why I thought they were impressive, but all of them could run the ball. It’s not super surprising the Ravens could run the ball, but Henry was better than expected. The Lions ran the ball better this year than they did last year, but with that line and those two backs that wasn’t that surprising. Montgomery being out will hurt their chances. I heard preseason Buffalo will try to run the ball much more this year. And although Cooks put up similar numbers to last year, I thought Buffalo looked less pass-first with Allen’s passing numbers being down quite considerably. The Eagles was the most surprising rushing team. Not surprising because they got Barkley, but they pounded the ball at times. Kellen Moore’s offense in general looked impressive. He really relied on his o-line, which is the best in the NFL. As Reid alluded to, I think Hurts is the weakest in terms of passing of the four teams I mentioned, but I thought the Eagles was the best offense I saw this year. They could really sustain drives at times.
Of course, I will not count out the Chiefs and have to mention them. I think if they can get good production from Isiah Pacheco, they can be the team to beat especially playing at home. They didn’t get hardly anything from him all year with his injuries, but they are a different team if he can run the ball.
The only good game this weekend will be the Bills and Ravens. If any of the other teams I mentioned loses this week, I would be surprised.
Detroit, Philly, Bills, and KC seemed like a cut above the rest, and I guess Baltimore would be in there as well. The first two just seemed like they are the two best teams, primarily because of they have great rosters. best rosters in the league and were really good teams overall. KC, this year, is the type of team that is a Super Bowl contender because of balance–that is, good in every phase (offense, defeense, ST), but really great in any of them,The bottom line is that they really don’t have any major weaknesses. I guess Baltimore is in that group, although I’m unsure about their defense. (I’m not sure if they shored it up now.)
Here are my caveats about these teams:
I agree that if Detroit or KC loses that will surprising, but if the Texans play defense like they did against the Chargers they have a chance. The problem to me is their offense. I’m not sure what the problem is, but something seems wrong with Stroud and that entire offense. With the Commanders, their offense gives them a chance, but I would be shocked if their defense gives them a chance.
Texans@Chiefs
Commanders@Lions
(On a side note, Brady seems like a bland, mediocre commentator.)
Texans, Chiefs:
I thought the story, especially in the first half, was the Texans were outplaying the Chiefs. However, the Texans couldn’t turn those drives into points. And although the Texans D did a good job limiting big plays, the Chiefs had just enough chunk plays to almost none for the Texans. Looking at the stats though, the Texans dominated in all areas.
The memorable part of the game was with ten minutes left in the game and the Texans driving to try and tie the game down eight they went for it on fourth and ten. Spags calls four straight blitzes from first down to fourth down all from different parts of the field. But going for it on fourth and ten was absolutely crazy.
Commanders, Lions:
This game was all about the turnovers. I thought the Lions looked like the better team, but five turnovers were too much to overcome. But Reid did say the Lions “may struggle against good offenses”, and other than the turnovers is what really cost the Lions.
I feel like around this point, the Texans run game was a non-factor, and once that happened, the Texans had no chance.
It’s hard to say. The Lions offense did look really good (against the Commanders D), but did they look way better than the Commanders offense (vs. the Lions D)? If the Lions protected the football, they probably outscore the Commanders (partly because the Commanders offense would have had fewer possessions).
One big key was the Commanders converting on 4th. Stopping them on 4th has to be a big objective for the Eagles. (I guess Quinn feels this is the only way his team can win. Interestingly, going for it, especially in FG range, might be just as much having the opposing defenses on the field longer, as it is scoring TDs over FGs.)
By the way, you didn’t feel like the Lions scored too quickly at times? (It’s not like they can totally control this, but I think this hurt their defense.)
I’ll make one comment that refers to both the Rams@Eagles and Ravens@Bills. My overall sense was that if you take away the turnovers (a big qualifier), the Ravens and Rams seemed like the better teams. The Bills defense seemed close to breaking in the second half, and Hurts did not look good and the Eagles passing attack did not look good. If this continues, Barkley is going to have to continue to run like he did yesterday.
Having said all this, the Bills are a balanced offense, and they showed a pretty strong commitment to the run, which stood out for me.
Oh, I should also say that Lamar did what a QB needed to in the end.. Andrews drop for the 2 point conversion sealed their fate.
Rams, Eagles:
The Rams did look like the better team early minus the chunk plays by the Eagles. However, once the snow started falling, it looked like the more physical team was going to win. On the last Rams drive, I don’t believe the Rams ran the ball once with good amount of time on the clock. If giving a second chance, I think McVay runs on third and two inside the red zone.
Ravens, Bills:
Both teams played well minus the turnovers and the drop by Andrews. But I agree the Ravens looked like the better team and probably should have won the game.
I feel like the Rams looked better in the second half.
If Henry can continue to play at the same level next year, the Ravens are going to be contenders again.
Hmmm, I thought there was a point in the second half where the Ram’s offense looked like it couldn’t do anything on the ground. This was especially true when it was snowing really hard. Once the Rams abandoned the run, mainly due to the score, their offense started humming. But I thought prior they were really struggling getting any push at the line of scrimmage. For some reason I didn’t get that same feeling when the field was more playable.
I don’t recall the Rams running or passing success. I just have a vague sense that their offense and overall team looked superior in the second half.
For the Bills@Chiefs, a few thoughts:
1. I feel like Joe Brady, the Bills OC, will have or needs to do well in this game. Specifically, can he keep Spags and the Chiefs guessing about whether the Bills will run or pass? Can he “zig” when they expect him to “zag” and vice-versa? I feel like if he can do this, if he can win the chess match, the Bills will have a great chance of winning.
2. My understanding is that the Bills have a smaller defense–not meant to defend against a power running team. That seems well-suited for the Chiefs. The Chiefs can run, but the Bills smaller personnel should be able to handle the Chiefs RBs. Would Reid go to a more run packages (e.g., bringing in extra linemen?) That would be pretty remarkable if he does that.
Bills@Chiefs
To me, superior coaching by Andy Reid and Spags is the story of the game–better schemes and the right moments.
Two other side comments:
The Chiefs are really a dink-and-dunk team, and they’re a ball control team by these relatively short passes.
Josh Allen started off in a really reckless way. Two throws should have been INTs.
Commanders@Eagles
3 turnovers by the Commanders gave their team virtually no chance to win.
Bills/Chiefs: The most memorable part of the game is the ineffectiveness of the tush push by the Bills. Nantz and Romo pointed out that the Bills/Allen’s tendency is to go left on the tush push and that the Chiefs knew that. I felt like that play was getting stalled consistently and yet the Bills kept going to it. Prior to the last stop, it didn’t seem like the ineffectiveness of the tush push really “hurt” the Bills as they would convert or score on following plays.
Cook’s ability to run the ball really changed the momentum of the game. I believe he only ran the ball 4 times in the first half.
Romo mentioned that the Bills MO was to go run heavy in the second half. Chiefs were getting crushed and really gave the Bills a chance to win the game.
I didn’t think Spags’ schemes was as obvious as it was against the Texans. The Bills did a good job picking up the Chief blitzes overall. But I agree on the effectiveness of some of Reid’s plays on offense.
I agree with your second paragraph. At some point it seemed like the Chiefs defense was about to break.
Going back to my point about the coaching, if you compare the Bills offensives plays with the Chiefs’, didn’t it seem like the Chiefs’ plays were way better, more varied? (To be fair, even with rather vanilla running, the Bills were effective for a stretch in the second half.) Also, for passing situations, either the pass plays weren’t good, Allen just couldn’t properly read coverage, or the Chiefs defense was lights out. In terms of the Chiefs passing, yes Mahomes ability to extend plays definitely factor in, but Chiefs also seemed to get open guys from designed plays.
I should also mention that big punt return by the Chiefs.
Reid-Spagnuolo-Taub–they may be the best coaching trio in the league.
I’m not sure what Taub brings to the table (but I know the Chiefs special teams are good), but I would agree with Reid and Spags being the top coaching combination in the league. Early on, the Chiefs won purely with offense when Tyreek was there, and Kelce was younger, and they had some no name fast guys. Tyreek left and their offense became must less explosive, but then they started building the defense and they continued to win. To me, that’s coaching. I know the main piece of Mahomes, Kelce, and Chris Jones are still there, but for most other teams that is just not enough.
Reid has proven himself to be really adaptable coach. Remember when they were a more run-based team with Jamaal Charles? And yeah, they moved from a high-powered offense to a more ball-controlled, defense-oriented team.
But in this last game, it was the play calling and play design that stood out for me. I kinda lean towards them beating the Eagles because of this, although I suspect Fangio can match Reid. I’m far less certain about Moore and Hurts being able to match Spags and his defense. Hurts is going to have to play well for them to win. I’ll be a little surprised if the Chiefs let Saquan beat them.
Eagles-Chiefs
If I had to sum in the game in one sentence, it would be, The Eagles DL dominates the Chiefs OL. The Chiefs were one of the most balanced teams in the league, with no really weakness–at least in terms of offense, defense and ST. However, if there was one weakness it would be the Chiefs OL, especially the tackles. I thought Reid would be able to work around this. The thing is, the Eagles strength is their DL, and they have a DC that could probably match wits with Reid.
The surprising thing was how much Spags let Hurts beat them. Hurts played well against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago as well. In fact, these two Chief games may be the best I have ever seen Hurts play. There is something in Spags’ defense that Hurts must like. Hurts hasn’t looked this good all year.
I was going to ask everyone if they thought Hurts played really well, because that’s not the impression I had. I didn’t think he played badly, but not exceptional, either. He did make a handful of key throws, and besides the one bad pass (which lead to an INT), he protected the football. It sounds like you disagree with me.
I must say that the Eagles defensive performance contributes to this impression of Hurts–overshadowing his performance to degree. I know at some point I felt it didn’t matter what Hurts or the Eagles offense did.
With regard to Spags, it seemed like the sold out to stop the run–with the idea that they were going to make Hurts beat them. Indeed, after a few possessions, I wanted the Eagles to pass (PA or otherwise) on first down and even pass on second. Just keep passing to hurt the Chiefs and then that would open the run game. I actually thought the Eagles run a bit too much.
I feel like the Chiefs defensive strategy was sound–the problem was that the Eagles defense dominated the Chiefs offense.
I thought Hurts was more remarkable in their loss two Super Bowls ago for sure. That being said, Spags did try to sell out to stop the run, but every other NFL team from week three on probably had the same thing in mind. Those other teams didn’t make Hurts an MVP candidate. In fact, I thought overall this was Hurts worse year as a QB despite their wins. Although, to be fair, he may have been hurt.
I would agree if Brady had this performance, I would have said average Brady. But Hurts isn’t Brady, and he made great decisions and great throws. Not only that but if there was any doubt in the third if the game was over, it was Hurts doing it with his legs to continue to run time off the clock and produce first downs.
Despite me throwing some hype on Kellen Moore’s play-calling this year, what I thought was a mistake was not running on obvious passing situations. That interception was when I was calling for a run on the outside knowing Spags will come with a blitz. Not only should they have been playing for the field goal with the score 7-0, but giving the ball to Barkley isn’t giving up. He still gives the Eagles a legitimate chance to get a third and long.
Right, but I guess his performance didn’t seem like an MVP performance. I mean, if the Eagles defense didn’t dominate, and the Chiefs offense could be functional, keeping the game close, would Hurts’s performance been enough to win the game? I have serious doubts about that.
Additionally, when an opponent is selling out to stop the run, if the QB is really good—and they have really good OL and pass-catchers–wouldn’t you expect more from that QB?
Now, Hurts made good throws, one in a critical moments, and his running really contributed, but overall his performance didn’t seem MVP worthy. The defense won the game.
One last thing. I think I mentioned that the Eagles roster was superior to the Chiefs. But not just in talent, but also in terms of physicality–particularly Philly’s defense versus the Chiefs offense. In this way, the game reminded me of the Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl. This makes me think about something Parcells said about being more physical than an opponent. He mentioned beating an opponent physically is something different–something opponents have a hard time dealing with. I think that’s what happened on Sunday. (And I don’t think Reid’s coaching would have made much of a difference.)
I think the game script didn’t ask Hurts to do more than he did. If the game was closer, he may have had to do more to win the game. I’m not saying he would have been able to, but two years ago, he showed he could have.
I’m guessing you would say Mahomes played more like an MVP last year against the Niners? Overall Mahomes was average last year (and the year prior against the Eagles), but he made plays to win the game. Hurts certainly didn’t have those moments.
I didn’t see last year’s Super Bowl, so I can’t really comment.