There are two theories on hitting the knuckleball. Unfortunately, neither one of them works. — Charlie Lau
The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then to pick it up. — Bob Uecker
There are two theories on hitting the knuckleball. Unfortunately, neither one of them works. — Charlie Lau
The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then to pick it up. — Bob Uecker
I was in no mood to really think about the baseball season last year, and until the playoffs couldn’t really generate any interest. Thank goodness for that great post-season, though. What a World Series.
So I didn’t make any predictions or really talk about baseball. But it’s spring training now, and this year the pre-season’s annual dominating vibe seems even stronger than usual: hope.
Before I get too into 2021, I never did debrief 2019, one of my favorite seasons in the past ten or fifteen years, so here goes.
I predicted:
Actual:
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
I was wrong about the Red Sox by a lot. The rest of the order is good, but that was not difficult to do in this division.
Twins
Indians
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
So far off. I’m annoyed I picked the White Sox to finish last.
Astros
Athletics
Rangers
Angels
Mariners
I guess it’s a recurring theme these days that you’re really dealing with the a couple of good teams in each division and then trying to figure out who’s the least bad of the rest. The Rangers finished third (I considered them the worst team in the division, and in retrospect still think they were), but with a 78-84 record.
Actual: Athletics, Rays.
My playoff predictions were Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Twins, Astros.
The acutal teams were Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays, Athletics. Three out of five. I don’t know how to feel about this.
Braves
Nationals
Mets
Phillies
Marlins
I don’t think anyone got this division right. The Braves were incredible. The Mets were a surprise. The Phillies disappointed. Philly came in second-to-last but were a .500 team, so it was a competitive division. The Nationals teetered on the brink of collapse at the all-star break, then had an amazing, storybook second half. It was super cool to watch.
Cardinals
Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
Don had this right: I underappreciated the Brewers. I also overappreciated the Cubs.
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Giants
Rockies
Padres
Really the only thing that mattered in this division was the Dodgers. The Padres finished 70-92 when I predicted they would finish second. However, I did say, “Manny Machado to the Padres. They were two years away but with Manny they might be one year away.” I was wrong about the one year, but it looks like I was right about the two years! The over-under on the 2021 Padres is 94.5.
Actual: Brewers, Nationals.
My playoff picks were Nationals, Phillies, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers.
The actual teams were the Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers. Three out of five again. Argh.
Woo. First time picking the correct World Series matchup and the correct winner! I’m talking first time in my life and I’ve been doing this since middle school. I don’t know what the odds are for doing this randomly, but I’ll bet that’s pretty close. 🙂
Actual MVP: Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) and Mike Trout (Angels). Both MVPs from the same city. Freddie Freeman won the MVP in the bubble season 2020, so I actually feel good even though I was wrong about 2019.
Actual Cy Young: Jacob DeGrom (Mets) and Justin Verlander (Astros). DeGrom was amazing. His numbers were kind of ungodly.
Actual: Pete Alonso (Mets) and Yordan Alvarez (Astros).
After you read this, you’ll be the second and third (and fourth and fifth, depending on who still lurks around here these days) people you know who knows about Kaʻai Tom (after me). He’s on verge of making the Athletics roster as their fifth outfielder. The player who was supposed to be in the lead for that spot is down with an injury, just in time for Tom to return from an injury and catch fire. He’s making a strong case for the opening day roster.
St. Louis grad, but it’s okay because it’s the Athletics.
I would root for him if he went to Punahou or Iolani. Well, I’m pretty sure I would, anyway.
He made the roster!
https://www.khon2.com/sports/this-is-something-that-ive-been-working-for-all-my-life-hawaiis-kaai-tom-earns-spot-on-oakland-athletics-opening-day-roster
The Athletics open the season Thursday with 10 games in 10 days, so he’s almost surely going to see the field as the fifth outfielder. I hope they pinch-hit him on Opening Day just to get that out of the way.
The other Hawaii people on MLB rosters as of today:
I guess there are two people on this planet named Isiah.
Kolten’s younger brother Kean is in Triple A for the Angels.
Kirby Yates was set to be the closer for the high-hopes Blue Jays but had Tommy John surgery last week.
I’m happy for Tom. I’m bummed about Yates, though.
I reserve the right to edit this any time before the first pitch is thrown Thursday.
AL East
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Orioles
I’d be mildly surprised if anyone picked the first three in a different order, unless they think the Blue Jays will do better than the Rays, which I wouldn’t laugh at.
In case you missed it, the Jays are one of the funnest teams to watch if you were a baseball fan in the early to late 90s. On the roster are
They won’t be a pushover but it’s too tough to beat the Rays and Yankees.
AL Central
White Sox
Twins
Royals
Tigers
Indians
The White Sox are one of the hot teams in conversations this year. I’ve seen at least one person pick Tony LaRussa to win manager of the year. I don’t know about that, but this is a really good team. Watch out for the Royals. They’re this year’s year-away-from-the-playoffs team.
AL West
Athletics
Angels
Astros
Rangers
Mariners
Throw the first three teams in a bag, shake it up, and pull them out and you have as good a chance at confidently predicting their order of finish this season. The A’s aren’t as good as the past two years, but neither are the Astros. Angels are the crazy wildcard. Could be amazing. I think Buster Olney is going to pick them to win the division.
Wildcards: Twins, Angels. The league still hasn’t officially said whether there will be an expanded playoffs, as there was last season, so I don’t think it’s going to happen (dumb move), but if it does put the Rays in that spot.
NL East
Braves
Mets
Nationals
Phillies
Marlins
I hope I’m wrong because I like this Nats team a lot. Phillies are better than 4th place but this is a competitive division. And the Marlins have beautiful starting pitching.
AL Central
Brewers
Reds
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
I may have the Cardinals lower than anyone in the country but I just don’t care for this team for some reason, except Paul Goldschmidt. Watch out for the Reds.
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Giants
Rockies
The Dodgers are amazing.
Wildcards: Padres, Mets. Add the Nationals if there’s a third team.
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees.
AL MVP: Mike Trout (but watch out for Tim Anderson)
NL MVP: Juan Soto. Everyone says it’s Soto, Ronald Acuna, or Fernando Tatis. I’m going with Soto because I think he’s going to have an ungodly OBP and walk 130 times. Might make the 30-30 club too. There’s a fair chance Jacob deGrom wins this too.
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole.
NL Cy Young: If Jacob deGrom wins, it will be his third in a row. So I’m going with Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers.
AL rookie: Randy Arozarena came out of nowhere and dominated the postseason and he’s still a rookie this season. But I’m going with Ryan Mountcastle because (a) he has a cool name and (b) he’s going to stand out on a lousy Orioles team.
NL rookie: Everyone is saying Ke’Bryan Hayes and so am I. Pretty much the same reasons I’m picking Ryan Mountcastle in the AL. The big difference is Hayes is sort of the consensus pick.
AL manager: Joe Maddon — it will be his fourth
NL manager: Dave Roberts
Note: I dropped the Cubs to third early Thursday morning and replaced them with the Nats as my third wildcard team.
Also note: I got the Jacob deGrom thing wrong. He won two in a row: 2018 and 2019. I somehow missed that Trevor Bauer won it in 2020. It’s okay. I still feel okay with my prediction of Bauer winning it in 2021.
I get where you put the Red Sox due to pitching, but they, at least on paper, seem to have a lot of hitting. Hitting can carry you in the regular season. But to tell you the truth I know very little of the Jays, other than they had hitting in the past few years as well.
Dave Roberts can win Manager of the Year with that much talent? He would have to win 120 games (Wait, there will be 162 games this year?).
I have a feeling the talking heads are going to talk a lot about how good a manager Dave Roberts is becoming, and that’s going to power enthusiasm for him. He’s known for being a good manager of people, which is what you look for these days when the analytics guys have more input on the lineup.
Also, the Dodgers are going to be really, really good. Don’t rule out 120 wins! And yes, 162 games is the plan.
I’m down on the Red Sox this year. I never cared for the team anyway except the past few years and now my enthusiasm has waned. This is probably influencing my thinking, but also I just really think the Jays are going to take big steps.
“Ka’ai Tom doesn’t have his first big league hit yet, but he now has a Major League pitching appearance to his record. In just his third Major League game, Tom, who was selected by the A’s in the Rule 5 Draft this past December, took the mound in the ninth inning of Sunday’s 9-2 loss to the Astros.”
https://www.mlb.com/news/ka-ai-tom-pitches-clean-inning-in-loss-to-astros
Dang, I didn’t know Kolten Wong got traded to the Brewers. Here’s his first at bat back at Busch Stadium (or whatever the Cardinals stadium is called now):
He didn’t get traded. He was a free agent through most of the off-season before signing with the Brewers.
(He was also number 1 on the list I posted here: http://www.village-idiots.org/2021/03/04/just-a-bit-outside-baseball-mmxxi/#comment-155214) 🙂
The standing O was nice to see. He did good time in St. Louis.
I totally missed that (obviously).
Mitchell,
I feel like we broached this topic before, but could Ohtani be a reliever and a DH? I guess he could have problems doing a proper bullpen session maybe? But here as a few questions I had about that. Can the DH be for any position? So when Ohtani starts, the DH cannot be for the shortstop for example? I’m pretty sure DH is for pitchers only. In the NL, when there is a pitching change, the team can do a double switch and move when the pitcher is supposed to hit next, but in the AL they cannot do that I’m guessing? The answers to those two questions would definitely lessen the advantage of having Ohtani as a reliever. Although, if the DH could hit for someone other than the pitcher that would be a great advantage when Ohtani started as well. But I was thinking if Ohtani was the DH for the starting pitcher, when he came in to relieve, the Angels could move Ohtani to hit for himself (maybe?) and then bring in another DH to hit for the shortstop.
Sorry one more question, that I probably could look up myself. With the new extra inning rules with a player starting on second base, how does that runner affect the pitchers ERA? I’m surprised he could have zero affect on an ERA. Although if a reliever came in with a runner on second, that runner would have no affect on the ERA of the reliever, so I guess that’s the same thing. I think I’m answering all my own questions.
I recently watched Ohtani’s hitting highlights (not sure why)–so I can see why you’re asking this. I’m guessing he couldn’t hit DH and come in to pitch at the same time….Then again, are you think when he comes in to pitch, the team can insert another DH and then he would be hitting for himself? If a player is playing DH in the earlier part of the game, can they play a fielding position later on (and then hit at that position)? If so, then I would think Ohtani could do the same.
They’re definitely going to do this? I thought this was just something they were discussing. It sounds awful.
This will be the second year of the runner on second for extra innings. I actually don’t have answers to most of Don’s questions so I’m doing some reading.
Okay I think I’ve got it all straightened out.
First, the basics. The DH specifically bats in place of the pitcher in the majors. I think I read there are some leagues where the DH can bat for any other position, which makes sense at lower levels, like high school, where the best pitcher is often the best hitter on the team.
Second, in the majors, a team may waive the DH position, but once the game begins, the DH is out of the lineup for the whole game. You can’t introduce a DH once the game has begun.
During the game, a DH may move into the field for defense, but then the team has waived the DH position for the rest of the game. So if I’m the DH and Reid is the 2nd baseman, if Reid gets hurt, I can become the 2nd baseman — my place in the batting order stays the same, and the pitcher assumes Reid’s position in the batting order.
If he begins the game as the DH, he can go to the mound and relieve the pitcher, at which point the Angels no longer have a DH for the rest of the game.
If he comes into the game as a reliever on a day he’s not in the lineup, he may bat for himself, removing the starting DH from the game and the DH position from the game. I’m guessing he assumes the DH’s spot in the batting order.
Yeah, the DH is specifically for the pitcher, which I didn’t know until today.
They can (and probably would) once the DH is removed from the game. So if Ohtani gets roughed up on the mound and they take him out, chances are they would sub in the reliever to bat in the lineup where he would do the least harm, meaning a position player would come out. Because if Ohtani is the starting pitcher and he’s batting in the lineup, the Angels are playing without a DH for the whole game.
In a sense, yes. But let’s say it’s been a couple weeks since he started on the mound (as is the case today) and the Angels need a position player to mop up late in the game, it would be great to have him available to take the mound and give the regular bullpen a rest. A stud like Ohtani probably wouldn’t want mop-up duty, but if he’s rehabbing an injury he might come in and take it easy.
Or if it’s the post-season, and the Angels have three very good starters, Ohtani can be in the batting order and available for relief in an NL park without giving up a solid bat in the lineup. Until the Angels are forced to remove him from the mound.
Yeah, that can’t happen because once Ohtani takes the mound, he stops being the DH and the Angels don’t have a DH in the lineup for the rest of the game.
You sure are. The runner on 2nd is treated as an inherited runner and if he crosses the plate it’s an unearned run. I just learned this today too. The extra-inning pitcher still gets the L if he allows that runner to score, even if it doesn’t affect his ERA.
You didn’t ask, but if you were wondering how fantasy leagues handle Ohtani: in Yahoo leagues, Ohtani is two different players. Shohei Ohtani (batter) and Shohei Ohtani (pitcher), and he gets drafted twice.
That’s great info. The most interesting part is that one, a DH (the position not the player) can be removed from a game, and two, once that is done, the pitcher would have to hit for himself the rest of the game. What seems unfair is Ohtani could DH for the entire game and have pitchers come and go, but if he ever came in to pitch, and he leaves the game as a pitcher, he would leave as a DH as well. But your example in which he came in for the second baseman is very similar, in which that person would be removed as a DH. But removing him as a DH sort of punishes him for being an unbelievable talent (if he could stay healthy).
This begs the question, if Ohtani is more valuable as a NL player or an AL player. The initial reaction would say AL, because Ohtani is an every day DH, but in the NL he would bat for himself and bat in the middle of the order. That’s absurd. He could also DH on his days off, and then take the field if his bat is needed. Bumgarner famously used to DH on his days off.
At one point this season Ohtani had the fastest pitch and a hit ball with the highest exit velocity. Nuts.
La Tortuga. (Panda part 2) I like this guy.
I’ve been watching recent Ohtani highlights, and I must say, that for a brief moment, I wondered if this guy was an android or cyborg. His power, both in pitching and hitting is unreal. (His split-finger and slider are pretty nasty, too.) But what surprised me is his speed. I saw him steal bases, but just running the bases in general. The thing is, he’s running fast, and it looks easy. Also, the guy is pretty huge (as in tall), and his face and facial expression almost look like he could be synthetic. OK, I’m not serious about him being an android, but if you made a movie about a Japanese baseball player that was a cyborg or an android, Ohtani would totally fit the bill.
On another note, I’ve been watching the Brewers a bit, just because I’m following Kolten Wong. They’ve kinda gone in a slump, though. Their bullpen is making them hard to watch. Their bats have cooled down a bit, too.
You watching games or just highlights? If games how are you watching it?
Highlights. MLB on youtube. Some of the game highlights are pretty long–7-8 minutes.
So their bullpen is unwatchable even in highlights? That’s pretty bad.
I listen to Brewers games sometimes if the Athletics have a day off or if they have a late game. I haven’t caught them with Bob Uecker on the call yet, but I really like the guys who do the radio broadcasts when Uecker’s not in the booth (usually road games these days), Jeff Levering and Lane Grindle.
I think I’ve listened to four or five Brewers games. They’re like fourth or fifth in my preference order if the Athletics aren’t on.
The video clips are not highlights of the Brewers, but highlights–or, more like summaries, of the games. So this would include good players by the Brewers’ opponents, too. I could be wrong, but the Brewers bullpen seems kinda horrid recently.
I like the play-by-play guy for the Twins. He might be call games that air across the nation, because his voice sounds familiar.
Yeah Milwaukee’s pen has been bad lately. I have one of their guys on one of my fantasy teams and his ERA for the season so far is over 10. Ugh.
Cory Provus is the Twins play-by-play guy and Dan (Man From) Gladden is the color announcer. I’ve listened to Twins games but not the Twins broadcast. Just the Athletics broadcast when they’ve playing Minnesota.
Over 10–yeah, that’s disgusting.
Cory Provus doesn’t sound like the guy. The guy I’m thinking of is the play-by-play guy in that video clip of Astudillo pitching. Here he is again:
Oh the TV broadcasters. Ha. Yeah, I listen to the radio broadcasters. The TV guy is Dick Bremer, who’s done their TV play-by-play since 1983. Bert (Be Home) Blyleven is the color man.
OK, Bremer–I like him, but I don’t care for Blyleven for some reason.
Smoltz’s comments below helped me get a better appreciation of difficulty and significance of what Shohei Ohtani is doing now.
Liked this:
Debriefing 2021: Part 1
Actual:
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
Blue Jays
Orioles
For most of the season I looked terrible picking the Red Sox fourth, but the Rays rescued me slightly by scooting to the lead. Sox still made the playoffs, though. The Red Sox definitely overachieved, though, nearly earning my admiration.
Actual:
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Royals
Twins
It’s become clear I pay far less attention to this division than any other. I still don’t know what the Indians did to finish second.
Actual:
Astros
Mariners
Athletics
Angels
Rangers
The Athletics started the season losing something like 12 of its first 16 games but they went on an incredible tear, then slumped again, then streaked again, then looked mediocre to finish the season. For a time after the all-star break, they were a lock for the post-season, but they performed poorly in September and were out of it with a week to go in the season.
It was a fun season anyway. When your team is on a huge hot streak, you can’t wait for the next game. I love that feeling.
My playoff picks were Yankees, Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Twins, Angels.
Actual playoff teams: Rays, Astros, White Sox, Yankees, Red Sox.
Three of five again. Just like last season.
Actual:
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins
Nationals
Terrible job of predicting.
Actual:
Brewers
Cardinals
Reds
Cubs
Pirates
I (again) didn’t give the Cardinals enough credit, but I also said, “Watch out for the Reds.” Calling this one a push.
Actual:
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Diamondbacks
The Padres surprised everyone by fading out of the picture. The Giants surprised everyone by leading the division most of the season. It was still a fun season for the division.
My playoff picks were Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Mets.
Actual: Giants, Brewers, Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals.
Three out of five again.
Actual:
World Series: Braves over Astros.
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Robbie Ray
NL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes
Actual:
AL Rookie: Randy Arozarena. He turned out to be the real deal. In my defense, Ryan Mountcastle did win Rookie of the Month once!
NL Rookie: Jonathan India
Actual:
AL manager: Kevin Cash (Rays)
NL manager: Gabe Kapler (Giants)
Debriefing 2021: Part 2 (fantasy edition)
I played in six Yahoo! money leagues, twelve teams in each league. Four leagues had $5 entry fees, with $30 going to the champ. Two had $20 entry fees, with (I think) $120 going to the champ.
I wanted to play in more leagues, but I’m testing out some fantasy advice websites, so I didn’t want to add too many variables. Plus, baseball plays every day for seven months. Managing six teams takes a total of half an hour to an hour each evening.
—
Matt’s Stairs
Drafted 10th
Finished: 2nd in the standings; lost in final
Payout: $18
First six picks:
1. (10) Christian Yelich
2. (15) Freddie Freeman
3. (34) Anthony Rendon
4. (39) Luis Castillo
5. (58) George Springer
6. (63) Tim Anderson
—
Vida’s Blue
Drafted 12th
Finished: 3rd in the standings; lost in semi, won 3rd place game
Payout: $7
First six picks:
1. (12) José Ramírez
2. (13) Freddie Freeman
3. (36) Luis Castillo
4. (37) Jack Flaherty
5. (60) Lance Lynn
6. (61) Javier Báez
—
Catfish’s Hunters
Drafted 1st
Finished: 10th
First six picks:
1. (1) Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. (24) Aaron Nola
3. (25) Anthony Rendon
4. (48) José Abreu
5. (49) Starling Marte
6. (72) Charlie Blackmon
This league and the next on the list illustrate why I hate drafting first. When Acuña went down for the year around midsummer (it happened when we had our picnic at Magic Island, so whenever that was) my highest drafted players were the 24th and 25th picks of the draft. There’s just too much riding on a #1 pick.
—
Rollie’s Fingers ($20)
Drafted 2nd
Finished 7th
First six picks:
1. (2) Ronald Acuña Jr.
2. (23) Yu Darvish
3. (26) Aaron Nola
4. (47) Corey Seager
5. (50) Kyle Tucker
6. (71) Kenta Maeda
—
Lefty’s Grove
Drafted 6th
Finished 7th
First six picks:
1. (6) Trea Turner
2. (19) Cody Bellinger
3. (30) Anthony Rendon
4. (43) Marcell Ozuna
5. (54) Kenta Maeda
6. (67) George Springer
It’s a miracle I finished 7th. Bellinger, the defending NL MVP was injured most of the first half and he was one of the worst players in baseball in the second. Springer was injured nearly the whole season, but never seriously enough to cut loose until I finally gave up on him. He’d go on the IL, play two games, and go back on it. Maddening. Kenta Maeda was mediocre with flashes of very goodness. Rendon was slightly worse than mediocre.
—
Alfredo’s Griffins ($20 league)
Drafted 8th
Finished 11th
First six picks:
1. (8) Mookie Betts
2. (17) Cody Bellinger
3. (32) Jack Flaherty
4. (41) Luis Castillo
5. (56) Tim Anderson
6. (65) Kenta Maeda
—
My total monetary investment was $60 and I won $25. Doesn’t seem that bad considering I played for ten years in a $100 keeper league.
As I mentioned with football in 2020, the higher-money leagues pay out at the same ratio as the lower-money leagues, so percentage-wise, you’re as well off in cheap leagues. However, in the pricier leagues, the competition is fiercer, and I did a lot worse in the standings.
My Alfredo’s Griffins were proposed a multiplayer trade I accepted, but the other managers in the league didn’t care for the guy I was trading with — he kept proposing horribly lopsided trades and had already had two trades blocked by the other managers.
I ran the numbers when the league protested my trade with this guy, showing how I wasn’t tanking and that they might see it as a dice roll, but it was a reasonable dice roll with numbers to back it up. I was in last place at the time and the other guy was in first, so some amount of risk-taking was necessary if I hoped to make the playoffs.
I presented one website’s expected WAR for the remainder of the season for each player in the trade and made a strong case, but the trade was nullified. OF COURSE I TURNED OUT TO BE RIGHT.
Anyway. I think I’ll play in ten leagues in 2022.