I haven’t watched all the games and teams this year, but here are some thoughts on these teams chances of winning the Super Bowl.
Eagles: I really haven’t watched them play a lot, but my sense is that they are one of the most balanced, well-rounded teams. Perhaps, they have on the best rosters. To me, Hurts’s ability to play well in the pocket is the biggest questions. In the playoffs, I’m guessing a defense will take away the run game and force him throw in the pocket. If he can’t do this well, I think their chances of winning are low.
Chiefs: I like them the best. What I really like is that they can not only score, but they can play “slow”–i.e., they can sustain long drives. Additionally, their defense seems like it’s good enough.
The Bills are close, but I favor the Chiefs because they have a more balanced offense (for most of the time).
One hesitation I have is Mahomes’s ball security. Same with Allen. They seem pretty solid in this regard, but I’m not entirely certain.
Bills: Actually, the best might be the better candidate for best roster. I think the biggest concern I have is the tendency to become one-dimensional and aggressive on offense.
Vikings:
I haven’t watched them play much (I need to). My sense is that Za’darius Smith has made a huge impact on the team. For the past several seasons, I felt they were a 1-3 playmakers away from being contenders. Smith is the type of addition I meant. (Hockenson, too.)
Cowboys: I haven’t really watched complete games, especially with Dak. But their defense looks really good–maybe they have one of the best in the league. As for the offfense and Dak, I don’t really have a good read on either.
Dolphins
Their defense doesn’t seem good enough to win it all. Tua’s lapses in accuracy/decision making making it hard for me to see them winning it all.
Ravens
I feel like every game Jackson has about 3-5 errant passes that shouldn’t be. (Cam was like this early on.) I think that will prove too costly in the close, playoff game. I’m also not confident about his ball security.
Giants
I liked the Giants, but they’re pass catchers seem really weak. (I think they have some injuries, though.)
49ers
I can’t see them winning with Jimmy G. People say their defense is dominant, but I don’t really see that.
Seahawks
Geno’s ability to make the handful of key plays–in the playoffs–and also protect the ball–is the key unknown. If you told me, he would do both, I’d move them up the power rankings.
Let me start by saying I haven’t watched a lot of football other than the Cowboys. But here are some responses to what Reid wrote.
Re Tua – Tua has always been known as an accurate passer even from his time at Alabama, so I’m going to guess it’s true. I really see his accuracy in short passes, especially quick slants where he really seems to hit his receivers on stride. I see Tua as being really good on his first or second read when he gets rid of the ball quickly. Of course, most NFL QBs look good when getting rid of the ball early, but I think Tua is better than average when he gets to the end of his dropback and gets rid of the ball. More credit may need to go to the coaching staff for this as the schemes seem to be working well on these plays, though. On plays where Tua needs to wait a little longer, he does a great job in the pocket, passing on the move, but his arm strength does become a problem. Those passes which pundits criticizes as Tua having bad arm strength to Hill should be more of a criticism of throwing the ball too late than of bad arm strength. I’ve seen passes to Waddle up the sideline in which Tua did throw it early and was perfect. Tua’s throws to the sidelines sometimes can look scary too because of his arm strength.
Re Defenses – I think most pundits have the following teams as top defenses (not in any order): Eagles, Cowboys, Broncos, Bills, and Niners, with the Pats, Jets and Bucs sprinkled in there. I think the Eagles look like the best defense. They don’t seem to have any weaknesses, but they do give up points sometimes. I don’t think the Bills are a great defense, although they have had some injuries. The Cowboys is weak against the run, but they seem to be the opportunistic. They get the most sacks and probably get a lot of interceptions as well because of that. The Niners are solid, but they defensive backs doesn’t look as good as the Eagles. If I had to rank them, I would have Eagles, Niners then the Cowboys. I didn’t see enough of the Broncos play to have a strong opinion. That’s a tough team to watch.
Re Rankings – I would have the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills and Cowboys in the top tier. I think the Eagles have the least weaknesses, but Hurts is the weakest QB of teams in this tier. Reid said that teams will try to make Hurts beat them in the playoffs by stopping the run, but I’m not 100% sure defenses can stop the Eagles’ run game consistently, especially when you add Hurts running. If I had to bet, I would pick the Bills because they have the highest ceiling especially when Allen is running the ball a lot. I’ll say this about the Bills’ offense. They were a more vertical team in the past few years, but now they have moved to a quick/short passing game. I think it can look unstoppable at times, but they don’t look as explosive as they have the last couple of years. I like the strategy overall, but they have to hit on some explosive plays more often, in my opinion.
I pretty much agree with everything you said. Tua is accurate most of the time, and he looks good planting his back foot and throwing the ball. But this makes the few errant passes he makes stand out even more.
I thought I mentioned this in another thread, but the two glaring examples are errant passes on 3rd/4th down throws (2-4 yards). The pass catchers were open. I have a hard time remembering a QB that throws a really inaccurate pass on in these situations–not the really good ones, anyway. Also, I don’t think the pass rush was enough to excuse the throws.
This isn’t the only example, though. In the games I’ve seen, there are maybe 3-4 poorly thrown balls–it’s enough to raise serious doubts. I could be wrong, but I feel like he’s going to make this sort of mistake in the playoffs and it’s going to cost the Dolphins.
If I had to rank them, I would have Eagles, Niners then the Cowboys. I didn’t see enough of the Broncos play to have a strong opinion.
The 49ers seem underwhelming to me, especially watching them with the expectation that they’re one of the best defenses. They don’t seem as good as the year they went to the Super Bowl, for example.
If the Titans can consistently play like they did against the Chiefs, I’d say they have one of the best defenses–and not just relative to the other defenses. They could be dominant. Their front four looked dominant.
Titans’ front four is good against the run and they have a good pass rush? I heard the Titans’ D is vastly improved, but after seeing them in the past few years, I didn’t think they could be all that good. But I didn’t see them play all that much this year thus far.
If you like exciting, wild games, I’d recommend watching this. This is the most exciting game I’ve seen all year. Here are some random comments:
The Bills have the better team–or at least the better roster. Going into the 4th quarter I said to myself, “If the Bills protect the football, and maybe show some balance on offense (i.e., they make the run game enough of a factor), they should win the Super Bowl.” What’s kinda crazy is that they have some key injuries in the secondary–but the defense still looks like one of the better defenses….
…except Justin Jefferson is just that good. He had the best catch of the year, and may be one of the best all-time catches. I don’t know how he came down with that 4th down throw.
Back to the Bills defense. Their interior DL seemed to be overpowering the Vikings OL. (Cousins had his foot stepped on twice, while moving back from under center.) At times, it looks like their OL, overall, just won’t be able to give Cousins the time to throw, especially on more long yardage plays.
Those long-yardage plays don’t work without Cousins’s ability to hang in the pocket. Talk about a master class of throwing from the pocket–just amazing to me. He doesn’t have a strong arm, too, as we know. Amazing how he got done.
Having said that, Cousins had two bad INTs. But the way in which his pass protection crumbles tempers my criticism a bit.
The Bills lost this game in the beginning of the 4th. Inside the 10, They throw on 2nd, and 3rd and short they throw again. They’re up 10. They’re in control of the game. Instead of kicking the FG, they go for it, and Allen throws an INT. Patrick Peterson returns it to the 35.
Here’s the drawback with aggressive football–especially with someone like Allen. You’re not good at eating up the clock. Their defense was in control of the game for the most part. The Bills need to not only do better at protecting the football. They need to be better at eating up the clock, too.
Some other crazy things: Vikings miss an extra point, pointing them down 4 instead of 3. They drive down for the TD, and try a QB sneak to get in but fail. To me, I didn’t like this call because the Bills interior DL was so strong. Crazy that Allen fumbled in the end zone!
Are the Vikings for real? I don’t think they’re a great team, but they’re a good one–one of the better teams in the NFC. They’re a pretty balanced team. (Their OL is a weak point I think.)
Jefferson’s catch was sick, but it was 50% luck too. The DB helped him catch the ball. I’m guessing if the DB wasn’t there, there is more chance then not that Jefferson catches that ball.
I hadn’t thought of this, and there’s some validity to it, although it seems a bit churlish of you. JJ still had to rip the ball out of the guys hands, and if you look near the end of the play, the fact that he maintained control without letting the ball touch the ground is amazing.
My comment about Jefferson’s catch was more of a response to many who thought it was even better than OBJ’s catch. OBJ’s catch was all on OBJ, whereas this Jefferson’s catch had some luck to it. I wasn’t trying to take away anything from Jefferson’s catch in and of itself, but by comparison, I didn’t think it was that close.
The first Dak INT was more of some kind of mix up. Both Schultz and Lamb was in the same spot. Announcer Greg Olsen said that he thought Schultz should have run more towards the DB and took him with him, and Lamb was supposed to come in behind him. But both of the receivers ended up in the same spot. The second INT was also a miscommunication but it could have been Dak’s fault. Lamb ran up and try to get behind the safety expecting the ball over his head, and Dak seem to be reading that Lamb would have broke it off and been in front of the DB. Again, Olsen put that on the Lamb, but as a layman, it’s hard to tell.
The biggest “talk” is McCarthy going for it on fourth down instead of kicking the field goal in OT. I thought going for it was the right call going for it since it was going to be a long field goal, but I would have like McCarthy’s thought process to be: it’s third and four on and about the 35-yard line. If we don’t get this third down unless we lose yards, we are going for it on fourth down. If we run the ball on third down, fourth down should be really manageable (ie: fourth and one or two).
I didn’t think Dallas was super effective on the ground minus some draw plays, but I completely agree that Dallas should have run the ball more. That being said Green Bay seem to be stacking the box on first down, which is why Lamb was running wide open good portions of the game.
Yeah I heard this on one of the Dallas’ podcasts too. The guys on the podcasts said McCarthy told Moore that we are not going to kick the field goal from here going in that direction (against the wind) on second down (even before the third down play). Again I agree with the decision, but they should have called a run on third down.
I forgot to mention that Aaron Rodgers was playing well against Dallas. I don’t recall too many bad passes from him, although he didn’t pass all that much.
I’m unfamiliar with the person making this power ranking, but I’m just going to use his list as a jumping off point.
I haven’t watched all the games and teams this year, but here are some thoughts on these teams chances of winning the Super Bowl.
Eagles: I really haven’t watched them play a lot, but my sense is that they are one of the most balanced, well-rounded teams. Perhaps, they have on the best rosters. To me, Hurts’s ability to play well in the pocket is the biggest questions. In the playoffs, I’m guessing a defense will take away the run game and force him throw in the pocket. If he can’t do this well, I think their chances of winning are low.
Chiefs: I like them the best. What I really like is that they can not only score, but they can play “slow”–i.e., they can sustain long drives. Additionally, their defense seems like it’s good enough.
The Bills are close, but I favor the Chiefs because they have a more balanced offense (for most of the time).
One hesitation I have is Mahomes’s ball security. Same with Allen. They seem pretty solid in this regard, but I’m not entirely certain.
Bills: Actually, the best might be the better candidate for best roster. I think the biggest concern I have is the tendency to become one-dimensional and aggressive on offense.
Vikings:
I haven’t watched them play much (I need to). My sense is that Za’darius Smith has made a huge impact on the team. For the past several seasons, I felt they were a 1-3 playmakers away from being contenders. Smith is the type of addition I meant. (Hockenson, too.)
Cowboys: I haven’t really watched complete games, especially with Dak. But their defense looks really good–maybe they have one of the best in the league. As for the offfense and Dak, I don’t really have a good read on either.
Dolphins
Their defense doesn’t seem good enough to win it all. Tua’s lapses in accuracy/decision making making it hard for me to see them winning it all.
Ravens
I feel like every game Jackson has about 3-5 errant passes that shouldn’t be. (Cam was like this early on.) I think that will prove too costly in the close, playoff game. I’m also not confident about his ball security.
Giants
I liked the Giants, but they’re pass catchers seem really weak. (I think they have some injuries, though.)
49ers
I can’t see them winning with Jimmy G. People say their defense is dominant, but I don’t really see that.
Seahawks
Geno’s ability to make the handful of key plays–in the playoffs–and also protect the ball–is the key unknown. If you told me, he would do both, I’d move them up the power rankings.
Ravens
Let me start by saying I haven’t watched a lot of football other than the Cowboys. But here are some responses to what Reid wrote.
Re Tua – Tua has always been known as an accurate passer even from his time at Alabama, so I’m going to guess it’s true. I really see his accuracy in short passes, especially quick slants where he really seems to hit his receivers on stride. I see Tua as being really good on his first or second read when he gets rid of the ball quickly. Of course, most NFL QBs look good when getting rid of the ball early, but I think Tua is better than average when he gets to the end of his dropback and gets rid of the ball. More credit may need to go to the coaching staff for this as the schemes seem to be working well on these plays, though. On plays where Tua needs to wait a little longer, he does a great job in the pocket, passing on the move, but his arm strength does become a problem. Those passes which pundits criticizes as Tua having bad arm strength to Hill should be more of a criticism of throwing the ball too late than of bad arm strength. I’ve seen passes to Waddle up the sideline in which Tua did throw it early and was perfect. Tua’s throws to the sidelines sometimes can look scary too because of his arm strength.
Re Defenses – I think most pundits have the following teams as top defenses (not in any order): Eagles, Cowboys, Broncos, Bills, and Niners, with the Pats, Jets and Bucs sprinkled in there. I think the Eagles look like the best defense. They don’t seem to have any weaknesses, but they do give up points sometimes. I don’t think the Bills are a great defense, although they have had some injuries. The Cowboys is weak against the run, but they seem to be the opportunistic. They get the most sacks and probably get a lot of interceptions as well because of that. The Niners are solid, but they defensive backs doesn’t look as good as the Eagles. If I had to rank them, I would have Eagles, Niners then the Cowboys. I didn’t see enough of the Broncos play to have a strong opinion. That’s a tough team to watch.
Re Rankings – I would have the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills and Cowboys in the top tier. I think the Eagles have the least weaknesses, but Hurts is the weakest QB of teams in this tier. Reid said that teams will try to make Hurts beat them in the playoffs by stopping the run, but I’m not 100% sure defenses can stop the Eagles’ run game consistently, especially when you add Hurts running. If I had to bet, I would pick the Bills because they have the highest ceiling especially when Allen is running the ball a lot. I’ll say this about the Bills’ offense. They were a more vertical team in the past few years, but now they have moved to a quick/short passing game. I think it can look unstoppable at times, but they don’t look as explosive as they have the last couple of years. I like the strategy overall, but they have to hit on some explosive plays more often, in my opinion.
RE: Tua
I pretty much agree with everything you said. Tua is accurate most of the time, and he looks good planting his back foot and throwing the ball. But this makes the few errant passes he makes stand out even more.
I thought I mentioned this in another thread, but the two glaring examples are errant passes on 3rd/4th down throws (2-4 yards). The pass catchers were open. I have a hard time remembering a QB that throws a really inaccurate pass on in these situations–not the really good ones, anyway. Also, I don’t think the pass rush was enough to excuse the throws.
This isn’t the only example, though. In the games I’ve seen, there are maybe 3-4 poorly thrown balls–it’s enough to raise serious doubts. I could be wrong, but I feel like he’s going to make this sort of mistake in the playoffs and it’s going to cost the Dolphins.
The 49ers seem underwhelming to me, especially watching them with the expectation that they’re one of the best defenses. They don’t seem as good as the year they went to the Super Bowl, for example.
If the Titans can consistently play like they did against the Chiefs, I’d say they have one of the best defenses–and not just relative to the other defenses. They could be dominant. Their front four looked dominant.
Titans’ front four is good against the run and they have a good pass rush? I heard the Titans’ D is vastly improved, but after seeing them in the past few years, I didn’t think they could be all that good. But I didn’t see them play all that much this year thus far.
Against the Chiefs, they were mostly rushing four, and getting pressure. I never noticed them doing this, with similar success, before.
In the past few years, their defense was disappointing. But if they can get consistent pressure with four, they could be dominant.
Vikings@Bills
If you like exciting, wild games, I’d recommend watching this. This is the most exciting game I’ve seen all year. Here are some random comments:
Are the Vikings for real? I don’t think they’re a great team, but they’re a good one–one of the better teams in the NFC. They’re a pretty balanced team. (Their OL is a weak point I think.)
Jefferson’s catch was sick, but it was 50% luck too. The DB helped him catch the ball. I’m guessing if the DB wasn’t there, there is more chance then not that Jefferson catches that ball.
I hadn’t thought of this, and there’s some validity to it, although it seems a bit churlish of you. JJ still had to rip the ball out of the guys hands, and if you look near the end of the play, the fact that he maintained control without letting the ball touch the ground is amazing.
My comment about Jefferson’s catch was more of a response to many who thought it was even better than OBJ’s catch. OBJ’s catch was all on OBJ, whereas this Jefferson’s catch had some luck to it. I wasn’t trying to take away anything from Jefferson’s catch in and of itself, but by comparison, I didn’t think it was that close.
It’s close for me.
Cowboys@Packers
Something looked wrong with Prescott. His accuracy looked really shaky, and he had two really bad picks. But later in the game he seemed better.
The Packer run game–and running it a lot–was the key in my view. This is the way they have to play.
On the other hand, their defense seems kinda bad, especially the run defense. (A part of me feel like the Cowboys should have ran a little more.)
The first Dak INT was more of some kind of mix up. Both Schultz and Lamb was in the same spot. Announcer Greg Olsen said that he thought Schultz should have run more towards the DB and took him with him, and Lamb was supposed to come in behind him. But both of the receivers ended up in the same spot. The second INT was also a miscommunication but it could have been Dak’s fault. Lamb ran up and try to get behind the safety expecting the ball over his head, and Dak seem to be reading that Lamb would have broke it off and been in front of the DB. Again, Olsen put that on the Lamb, but as a layman, it’s hard to tell.
The biggest “talk” is McCarthy going for it on fourth down instead of kicking the field goal in OT. I thought going for it was the right call going for it since it was going to be a long field goal, but I would have like McCarthy’s thought process to be: it’s third and four on and about the 35-yard line. If we don’t get this third down unless we lose yards, we are going for it on fourth down. If we run the ball on third down, fourth down should be really manageable (ie: fourth and one or two).
I didn’t think Dallas was super effective on the ground minus some draw plays, but I completely agree that Dallas should have run the ball more. That being said Green Bay seem to be stacking the box on first down, which is why Lamb was running wide open good portions of the game.
On GM Shuffle, they mentioned that McCarthy told Moore they were going for it when they got near that area.
Yeah I heard this on one of the Dallas’ podcasts too. The guys on the podcasts said McCarthy told Moore that we are not going to kick the field goal from here going in that direction (against the wind) on second down (even before the third down play). Again I agree with the decision, but they should have called a run on third down.
I forgot to mention that Aaron Rodgers was playing well against Dallas. I don’t recall too many bad passes from him, although he didn’t pass all that much.