This is a thread to talk about expectations and predictions for the upcoming NFL season.
8 thoughts on “2023-2024 NFL Regular Season”
I didn’t really watch many games last year, so I’m far less confident about the quality of the teams and players. With that caveat, here are some of my thoughts.
As always, I want to identify the teams that have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl. For me, that is based on the extent to which teams fit the following templates:
A strong defensive/ST team, with a strong run game and a QB that can make a handful of key plays in big moments, while also protecting the football. This template can manifest itself in different ways. For example, a team’s defense may just be good, but if they’re run game is dominant, and the QB is decent, then that team could fall into this category. Or, maybe the team has a truly dominant defense, then their run game need not be really great. Or maybe the ST is terrific, and the defense and run game are just good. (In these examples, the QB has to at least be a good game manager, if not better than that.)
A team with a dominant defense–the type that might be a contender for all-time great status.Such a team need not have a good offense.
A well-rounded, balanced team–i.e., a team that is good, but not necessarily great in all phases (The 2007 Giants team that beat the Partriots in the Super Bowl might be an example of this.) Obviously, a team that is good-to-great in all phases would be even better.
Pass-based offense that can also control the clock, plus solid defense
Normally, I would name the teams that would fit the descriptions above, but with some exceptions (e.g., KC being a great pass first offense that also can control the ball), I’m too uncertain about the teams. Instead, I’ll talk about the teams that may fit these descriptions, particularly if they meet certain conditions.
As an example, let’s start with the Jets. My sense is that they could have a really good defense, maybe a dominant one. They’ve brought in Nathaniel Hackett as their OC, who is more of a run-first guy. If Rodgers is willing to play in that style, and their defense is really good, I think they would fit the bill. But I tend to think that Rodgers won’t really accede to this, unless his skills have really deteriorated.
I also think the Cowboys and 49ers could qualify. My guess is that both teams could have dominant defenses. The 49ers should have a good rushing attack, so the remaining question is if the QB meets the criteria above. With the Cowboys, moving on from Kellen Moore and hiring Brian Schottenheimer points to a more physical, run-based offense–or at least one that involves the run game more than in the past. If that happens, my question would be whether they have the RBs to have a great run game. If they do, I think Prescott could be good enough to lead them (particularly if the defense is great).
The Eagles seem balanced–and my sense is that they control the ball well, which should help their defense. They should be contenders as well.
I also considered teams like the Bills, Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Lions, Dolphins and Jaguars, but there is too much unknowns for me (e.g., how will DeShaun Watson perform, etc.)
Last year my best prediction was picking the Giants as my team to come out of nowhere. It was an educated prediction, and although 9-7 isn’t great, they made the playoffs (as the sixth seed) and their early-season success was talked about a lot in the sports talk space.
I picked Christian McCaffrey to win the Comeback Player of the Year award. He finished second to Geno Smith. Fair enough, and I wasn’t going out on a limb picking McCaffrey.
My Bills over Niners pick for the Super Bowl. 🙁 What a great season the Niners had, but at the end there, they just ran out of quarterbacks.
I also picked Lamar Jackson for MVP. Sigh.
—
AFC Best
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers
AFC North
Bengals
Steelers
Ravens
Browns
AFC East
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
Patriots
AFC South
Jaguars
Titans
Colts
Texans
NFC West
49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
NFC North
Vikings
Lions
Packers
Bears
NFC East
Eagles
Cowboys
Giants
Commanders
NFC South
Saints
Buccaneers
Falcons
Panthers
I have zero confidence in these picks. The only teams that look bad to me are the Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, and Texans. Everyone else looks good or at least decent. And this off-season, there was just a lot of talk about how competitive the fair-to-middling teams look, so it’s difficult to pick a team to come out of nowhere.
Since I’m rooting for Baker Mayfield to do well, the Buccaneers are my pick to come out of nowhere. I think it’s fair. They were a four-seed last year but with an 8-9 record, and I don’t think people expect anything from them.
AFC Wildcards: Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens
NFC Wildcards: Lions, Cowboys, Buccaneers
AFC Champs: Bills
NFC Champs: Cowboys
Super Bowl: Bills over Cowboys
MVP: Joe Burrow
Comeback player of the year: Damar Hamlin
Defensive player of the year: Micah Parsons
Offensive player of the year: Ja’Marr Chase
Pundits seem to love the Jets and Lions outside of the normal, Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, etc. I’m on board with these two teams as well. I think the Jets will have a top 5 defense by the end of the year. I think Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall with Aaron Rodgers will help to keep that defense fresh by controlling the time of possession, which is something that probably limited the defense last year. The one thing I’m hesitant with the Jets is their offensive line. I’m hearing they can be a below average group.
Conversely, I think one of the Lion’s strengths will be their offensive line. The Lions will have a top five offense this year and their OC Ben Johnson is supposed to be the best in the NFL. Of course, the Lions will have Goff running the offense, which is their Achilles, but they will be good despite him.
The team that I think will do better than people think are the Colts. The last few years, the Colts have had underwhelming QB play. I’m not sure that changes this year, but I’m hearing good things about how Steichen called plays in Philly and so I’m looking forward to how his team performs.
The only teams that look bad to me are the Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, and Texans.
The Falcons made a lot of moves to upgrade their roster. If they were terrible that would a huge disappointment for their franchise and fans. My guess is that they won’t be among the worst teams. (I really like Arthur Smith in terms of his offense, particularly installing a run game.)
The Panthers had a solid roster last year, although I don’t know if they lost a lot of talent. (I know they lost DJ Moore, which will hurt.) If they’re OL is just OK or worse, I think it could get ugly for Young and the team in general.
Since I’m rooting for Baker Mayfield to do well, the Buccaneers are my pick to come out of nowhere.
I don’t really know about the status of their current roster, but my sense is that they could be among the worst teams. They didn’t look good last year, and I think they didn’t make enough moves to improve. (I believe their center, Ryan Jensen, is out for the season.) On a side note, the new OC (from Seattle–can’t remember his name now) seemed to call a really balanced attack in one of the pre-season games. I liked that. But if the OL is not good, I think they’ll be among the bad teams in the league.
Super Bowl: Bills over Cowboys
I feel like this is a big year for Josh Allen and the coaching staff. I feel like they need more balance in their offense–that Allen may be doing too much, and he’s regressing because of this. If they can improve these things, I would expect them to be a strong contender.
I’m more hesitant picking the Jets because teams don’t normally go from average to winning a Super Bowl in one season, even if they get an elite QB.
Last year, they had a good defense, solid at various positions–except awful at QB. With Rodgers and a good run-based offense, I would choose them to be contenders. I tend to think Rodgers will not really cooperate enough to make this happen (i.e., he’ll want to throw the ball too much, and Saleh will likely accede, which is probably the smart move).
I think the Colts have a top ten offensive line and a good interior defensive line.
They were really good a few years ago, but I thought they lost some key players and really didn’t replace them.
(In a way, Rodgers is in a similar position to Peyton Manning at the end. Does Rodgers want to throw the ball a lot or does he want to win a Super Bowl? With a run game, D/ST that is good-to-great + Rogers, and I might pick them as favorites. I’d like their chances against the Bills and Chiefs.)
Closing out this season before it’s time to start thinking about the draft.
These were my predictions and the actual results.
I said
AFC Best
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers
actual
Chiefs
Raiders
Broncos
Chargers
The Raiders and Broncos each finished 8-9, so I’m giving myself credit for this whole thing, especially since I didn’t hear anyone picking the Chargers to be in last.
I said
AFC North
Bengals
Steelers
Ravens
Browns
actual
Ravens
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Injuries suck and I was way off.
I said
AFC East
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
Patriots
actual
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
Patriots
The kick is up, and it’s good!
I said
AFC South
Jaguars
Titans
Colts
Texans
actual
Texans
Jaguars
Colts
Titans
Wide, wide left. 🙁
I said
NFC West
49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
actual
49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
Bing!
I said
NFC North
Vikings
Lions
Packers
Bears
actual
Lions
Packers
Vikings
Bears
Bzzzz! Injuries suck.
I said
NFC East
Eagles
Cowboys
Giants
Commanders
actual
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Commanders
What a strange ride this was for the NFC East. I still don’t know what to make of Dallas’s inconsistency or Philadelphia’s deflation.
I said
NFC South
Saints
Buccaneers
Falcons
Panthers
actual
Buccaneers
Saints
Falcons
Panthers
Hoped Baker Mayfield would do well; didn’t expect he’d do this well. It was a pleasant surprise. I also don’t know why the Falcons can’t get it together.
I said
Since I’m rooting for Baker Mayfield to do well, the Buccaneers are my pick to come out of nowhere. I think it’s fair. They were a four-seed last year but with an 8-9 record, and I don’t think people expect anything from them.
actual
I did okay with this, but a better argument should be made that the two real teams from out of nowhere were the Packers and Rams. I actually found myself rooting for the Rams again, which was a little weird.
I said
AFC Wildcards: Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens
NFC Wildcards: Lions, Cowboys, Buccaneers
actual
Of seven AFC playoff teams, the only one I got wrong was the Bengals who didn’t make it and the Browns who did. I wonder what the national average is.
Of seven NFC playoff teams, I was wrong about the Vikings and Saints, who didn’t make it, and the Packers and Rams, who did.
I said
AFC Champs: Bills
NFC Champs: Cowboys
Super Bowl: Bills over Cowboys
actual
Chiefs. Niners.
Chiefs.
Ugh.
I said
MVP: Joe Burrow
Comeback player of the year: Damar Hamlin
Defensive player of the year: Micah Parsons
Offensive player of the year: Ja’Marr Chase
actual
MVP: Lamar Jackson
Comeback: Joe Flacco’s coming back from doing nothing is apparently more impressive than Damar Hamlin’s coming back from the dead.
Defensive POY: Myles Garrett
Offensive POY: Christian McCaffrey
A running back winning POY is pretty great. I actually think a legit case could have been made for McCaffrey to be MVP.
I didn’t really watch many games last year, so I’m far less confident about the quality of the teams and players. With that caveat, here are some of my thoughts.
As always, I want to identify the teams that have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl. For me, that is based on the extent to which teams fit the following templates:
Normally, I would name the teams that would fit the descriptions above, but with some exceptions (e.g., KC being a great pass first offense that also can control the ball), I’m too uncertain about the teams. Instead, I’ll talk about the teams that may fit these descriptions, particularly if they meet certain conditions.
As an example, let’s start with the Jets. My sense is that they could have a really good defense, maybe a dominant one. They’ve brought in Nathaniel Hackett as their OC, who is more of a run-first guy. If Rodgers is willing to play in that style, and their defense is really good, I think they would fit the bill. But I tend to think that Rodgers won’t really accede to this, unless his skills have really deteriorated.
I also think the Cowboys and 49ers could qualify. My guess is that both teams could have dominant defenses. The 49ers should have a good rushing attack, so the remaining question is if the QB meets the criteria above. With the Cowboys, moving on from Kellen Moore and hiring Brian Schottenheimer points to a more physical, run-based offense–or at least one that involves the run game more than in the past. If that happens, my question would be whether they have the RBs to have a great run game. If they do, I think Prescott could be good enough to lead them (particularly if the defense is great).
The Eagles seem balanced–and my sense is that they control the ball well, which should help their defense. They should be contenders as well.
I also considered teams like the Bills, Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Lions, Dolphins and Jaguars, but there is too much unknowns for me (e.g., how will DeShaun Watson perform, etc.)
Last year my best prediction was picking the Giants as my team to come out of nowhere. It was an educated prediction, and although 9-7 isn’t great, they made the playoffs (as the sixth seed) and their early-season success was talked about a lot in the sports talk space.
I picked Christian McCaffrey to win the Comeback Player of the Year award. He finished second to Geno Smith. Fair enough, and I wasn’t going out on a limb picking McCaffrey.
My Bills over Niners pick for the Super Bowl. 🙁 What a great season the Niners had, but at the end there, they just ran out of quarterbacks.
I also picked Lamar Jackson for MVP. Sigh.
—
AFC Best
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers
AFC North
Bengals
Steelers
Ravens
Browns
AFC East
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
Patriots
AFC South
Jaguars
Titans
Colts
Texans
NFC West
49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
NFC North
Vikings
Lions
Packers
Bears
NFC East
Eagles
Cowboys
Giants
Commanders
NFC South
Saints
Buccaneers
Falcons
Panthers
I have zero confidence in these picks. The only teams that look bad to me are the Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, and Texans. Everyone else looks good or at least decent. And this off-season, there was just a lot of talk about how competitive the fair-to-middling teams look, so it’s difficult to pick a team to come out of nowhere.
Since I’m rooting for Baker Mayfield to do well, the Buccaneers are my pick to come out of nowhere. I think it’s fair. They were a four-seed last year but with an 8-9 record, and I don’t think people expect anything from them.
AFC Wildcards: Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens
NFC Wildcards: Lions, Cowboys, Buccaneers
AFC Champs: Bills
NFC Champs: Cowboys
Super Bowl: Bills over Cowboys
MVP: Joe Burrow
Comeback player of the year: Damar Hamlin
Defensive player of the year: Micah Parsons
Offensive player of the year: Ja’Marr Chase
Repeat: zero confidence!
Pundits seem to love the Jets and Lions outside of the normal, Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, etc. I’m on board with these two teams as well. I think the Jets will have a top 5 defense by the end of the year. I think Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall with Aaron Rodgers will help to keep that defense fresh by controlling the time of possession, which is something that probably limited the defense last year. The one thing I’m hesitant with the Jets is their offensive line. I’m hearing they can be a below average group.
Conversely, I think one of the Lion’s strengths will be their offensive line. The Lions will have a top five offense this year and their OC Ben Johnson is supposed to be the best in the NFL. Of course, the Lions will have Goff running the offense, which is their Achilles, but they will be good despite him.
The team that I think will do better than people think are the Colts. The last few years, the Colts have had underwhelming QB play. I’m not sure that changes this year, but I’m hearing good things about how Steichen called plays in Philly and so I’m looking forward to how his team performs.
Yeah, that’s a huge concern. And it’s one of the big reasons I may hesitate on picking them going to the Super Bowl.
He’s looked way better with the Lions–particularly under duress. My question is if he can play well in the playoffs.
Count me as someone who will be surprised if they do well.
I’m more hesitant picking the Jets because teams don’t normally go from average to winning a Super Bowl in one season, even if they get an elite QB.
I think the Colts have a top ten offensive line and a good interior defensive line. I think they could make the playoffs.
The Falcons made a lot of moves to upgrade their roster. If they were terrible that would a huge disappointment for their franchise and fans. My guess is that they won’t be among the worst teams. (I really like Arthur Smith in terms of his offense, particularly installing a run game.)
The Panthers had a solid roster last year, although I don’t know if they lost a lot of talent. (I know they lost DJ Moore, which will hurt.) If they’re OL is just OK or worse, I think it could get ugly for Young and the team in general.
I don’t really know about the status of their current roster, but my sense is that they could be among the worst teams. They didn’t look good last year, and I think they didn’t make enough moves to improve. (I believe their center, Ryan Jensen, is out for the season.) On a side note, the new OC (from Seattle–can’t remember his name now) seemed to call a really balanced attack in one of the pre-season games. I liked that. But if the OL is not good, I think they’ll be among the bad teams in the league.
I feel like this is a big year for Josh Allen and the coaching staff. I feel like they need more balance in their offense–that Allen may be doing too much, and he’s regressing because of this. If they can improve these things, I would expect them to be a strong contender.
Don said:
Last year, they had a good defense, solid at various positions–except awful at QB. With Rodgers and a good run-based offense, I would choose them to be contenders. I tend to think Rodgers will not really cooperate enough to make this happen (i.e., he’ll want to throw the ball too much, and Saleh will likely accede, which is probably the smart move).
They were really good a few years ago, but I thought they lost some key players and really didn’t replace them.
(In a way, Rodgers is in a similar position to Peyton Manning at the end. Does Rodgers want to throw the ball a lot or does he want to win a Super Bowl? With a run game, D/ST that is good-to-great + Rogers, and I might pick them as favorites. I’d like their chances against the Bills and Chiefs.)
Closing out this season before it’s time to start thinking about the draft.
These were my predictions and the actual results.
I said
AFC Best
Chiefs
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers
actual
Chiefs
Raiders
Broncos
Chargers
The Raiders and Broncos each finished 8-9, so I’m giving myself credit for this whole thing, especially since I didn’t hear anyone picking the Chargers to be in last.
I said
AFC North
Bengals
Steelers
Ravens
Browns
actual
Ravens
Browns
Steelers
Bengals
Injuries suck and I was way off.
I said
AFC East
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
Patriots
actual
Bills
Dolphins
Jets
Patriots
The kick is up, and it’s good!
I said
AFC South
Jaguars
Titans
Colts
Texans
actual
Texans
Jaguars
Colts
Titans
Wide, wide left. 🙁
I said
NFC West
49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
actual
49ers
Rams
Seahawks
Cardinals
Bing!
I said
NFC North
Vikings
Lions
Packers
Bears
actual
Lions
Packers
Vikings
Bears
Bzzzz! Injuries suck.
I said
NFC East
Eagles
Cowboys
Giants
Commanders
actual
Cowboys
Eagles
Giants
Commanders
What a strange ride this was for the NFC East. I still don’t know what to make of Dallas’s inconsistency or Philadelphia’s deflation.
I said
NFC South
Saints
Buccaneers
Falcons
Panthers
actual
Buccaneers
Saints
Falcons
Panthers
Hoped Baker Mayfield would do well; didn’t expect he’d do this well. It was a pleasant surprise. I also don’t know why the Falcons can’t get it together.
I said
Since I’m rooting for Baker Mayfield to do well, the Buccaneers are my pick to come out of nowhere. I think it’s fair. They were a four-seed last year but with an 8-9 record, and I don’t think people expect anything from them.
actual
I did okay with this, but a better argument should be made that the two real teams from out of nowhere were the Packers and Rams. I actually found myself rooting for the Rams again, which was a little weird.
I said
AFC Wildcards: Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens
NFC Wildcards: Lions, Cowboys, Buccaneers
actual
Of seven AFC playoff teams, the only one I got wrong was the Bengals who didn’t make it and the Browns who did. I wonder what the national average is.
Of seven NFC playoff teams, I was wrong about the Vikings and Saints, who didn’t make it, and the Packers and Rams, who did.
I said
AFC Champs: Bills
NFC Champs: Cowboys
Super Bowl: Bills over Cowboys
actual
Chiefs. Niners.
Chiefs.
Ugh.
I said
MVP: Joe Burrow
Comeback player of the year: Damar Hamlin
Defensive player of the year: Micah Parsons
Offensive player of the year: Ja’Marr Chase
actual
MVP: Lamar Jackson
Comeback: Joe Flacco’s coming back from doing nothing is apparently more impressive than Damar Hamlin’s coming back from the dead.
Defensive POY: Myles Garrett
Offensive POY: Christian McCaffrey
A running back winning POY is pretty great. I actually think a legit case could have been made for McCaffrey to be MVP.
Not my best year, but certainly not my worst. 🙂