Lions@Bills
The Bills have a good offense, possibly one of the best NFL offenses, but they made it look a little too easy too often. If the Lions defense doesn’t improve significantly, I don’t think they have a defense good enough to win the Super Bowl.
I have similar feelings about the Bills defense.
Two other observations:
- The Lions OL seems a little shaky. Against the pass rush, they looked a little overwhelmed at times. (The LG stood out a bit in this regard.)
- Josh Allen is an incredible talent. His arm strength, size and running ability are on par with Cam Newton in my view. But there are still times where he’ll do something questionable that can get him in trouble, or out of sorts. With regard to the latter, I’m thinking of the few possessions at the end, where he and the offense just seemed a little sloppy.
Power rankings: which teams have the best shot at winning the Super Bowl
Before I discuss the teams, I want to say a word about the current NFL landscape, in terms of the quality of the teams. We’ve only completed week 1, but if I also factor in the 2025 season, my overall impression is that there are no really great teams. Instead there are many different teams that range from good to very good, with the gap between them not being very wide. (The gap between average and good is also not very wide.) To say it another way: there are not true tier 1 teams. The best teams are somewhere in the tier 2 and 3, while the differences between the tiers is not very large. Additionally, teams at the top of tier 2 all have serious question marks. This is another reason there aren’t any true tier 1 teams for me.
I should say it’s easy to imagine a team moving up or down a tier. A team that gets better through the course of the season (for whatever reason) could easily advance to the next tier. This includes some very good teams moving into great territory. This can also work the other way–that is, a team could decline (for whatever reason) and move down a tier.
Now let’s go into the tiers. (Given what I said above I’m going to start with tier 2 teams and not have a tier 1. Also, I feel like this goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: I’m mostly not factoring in injuries, unless there is good reason to. Injuries can definitely impact the SB chances for these teams.)
Tier 2
Three teams come to mind first (and please note that the gap between the subsequent teams are not that far):
49ers: If the 49ers stay healthy, I feel like they could be a tier 1 team. But to me that is a big “if.” Perhaps a more realistic scenario is that their key players are healthy by the playoffs. If they can do this they have a great shot at winning the Super Bowl.
Rams: Their roster, especially on defense, looks really good. There are three big questions I have for them: 1) Can Garrett return to form soon; 2) Can Stafford stay healthy and stave off a decline in performance; and 3) Have they improved their ST enough?
I’m going to guess that the odds that they achieve all three are fairly good. And if they do this, they should have one of the better defenses, and their offense should operate at the same level.
Seahawks: The two biggest questions for the Seahawks are 1) Darnold’s health; and b) The quality of their new OC, Brian Fleury. I tend to think Darnold won’t miss a lot of games, and will be good to go. I lean towards Fleury being at least solid, but that’s not based on a lot.
But if Darnold is healthy and Fleury is a good OC, the offense should be at least as good as last year, and possibly better. If that happens, I think they’ll be the best overall team (in terms of being really good in all three phases).
Texans
By the end of the season, I would be a little disappointed if they’re not among the best defenses, and I feel like they could move outside of all-time great status. Can Stroud protect the ball? Can their run game be good enough? How good is their OC and OL? These are big question marks for me.
Bills
Josh Allen is in a one-man wrecking crew, in the mold of John Elway. (Physically, he reminds me of Cam Newton.) They have good ground game as well.
In general though, the Bills seems like the same team as last year. I wonder if their defense is good enough? Also, will their HC (OC) and DC be good enough against the coaches in the playoffs? I have doubts about this, especially the OC. (In a way, I feel bad for Sean McDermott. By making Brady the HC, the organization is saying that he was good enough as OC, but McDermott was the problem. I’m a little skeptical that was the case.)
Ravens
They seem really balanced. I’m unsure of their new OC, and Lamar’s ability to play well in big games is one of the bigger questions for me.
Chiefs
Mahomes did not look good in week 1. For them to have a chance, he has to return to form or get a lot better. Either that, or the run game and defense have to be dominant.
One question I have: Will Andy Reid allow the run-first style to be their identity for the whole year? I could see it happening, but it will be a little surprising as well. If they do this and Mahomes returns to form, I think the will be a strong SB contender (and I’m favor them to win the AFC.)
Bears
How good is their defense? And can Williams make good decisions in the big games? Dennis Allen seems like a really good DC, so I think they could probably be good enough in the playoffs. I’m less certain about Caleb “Not-the-real-Iceman” Williams.
Patriots
I’m guessing Maye will make better decisions, and if so, they will be a well-balanced team that will be a tough out in every game. Actually, I’m not super confident that Maye’s ball security will get better this year. I feel like his last two games should have chastened him, but I thought the SB would have taught him a lesson, but apparently not. So who knows?
Broncos
I’m not a fan of Nix, but given that he’s Sean Payton’s man, I will assume he’ll get better. The defense should play a lot better going forward, although I do have concerns about their run defense. (I would have preferred playing them in the SB, even with a healthy Nix, over the Pats.)
Tier 3 (not in any order)
Bengals
They seem way more balanced–their run game is more of a factor and their defense seems a lot better. If this proves true, and Burrow stays healthy, they’ll be in tier 2. If their defense is top 10-ish, I think they’ll be strong AFC contender.
Jaguars
The Athletic Football Show guys seem to love them. I think they’re in these two tiers, but I’m don’t believe in Trevor Lawrence.
Eagles
Their offense, particularly their run game, looked unimpressive–similar to last year. Can their new OC really turn things around? It’s a big unknown, and I tend to be more pessimistic. (By the end of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if their defense is among the best in the league.
Buccaneers
Balanced team, but I think the defense has to take some big strides. (I don’t think their offense will do that.) I’m less certain that will happen by the end of the year.
Chargers
I would assume Chargers will get a lot better. To have a chance they have to be better than last year. Going into the year, I thought that would be the case. With a new DC and OC, I’m less certain about that now.
Packers
I didn’t really watch them closely in week 1. But I would think Parsons coming back healthy could lift them to the next tier. (I’m not a fan of Love. Also, it seems like he’s now throwing off his back foot whether he really has to or not.)
Cowboys
How much will their defense improve, if at all, by the end of the season? No idea.
After two weeks I thought the Bills, offense looks significantly better than last year. Last year their passing game was so inconsistent. They lacked any good receivers. They added DJ Moore and although he hasn’t done much, I’m guessing his presence alone helps. The other thing is how many receptions the TEs are getting after two weeks.
I think the Vikes should be on this list. They don’t have great talent on either side of the ball, so I can see why they will be overlooked. But man, Flores and KOC coaches them up.
I wouldn’t put the Patriots and Bears with the other teams in tier 2. I think both are good, but somehow not in the category of the rest of the teams in that tier.
Does the Bills offense looked better than the offenses from the last 3 years or so? I don’t get that sense. Also, I have questions about their defense.
I have a hard time putting them on their with Wentz as QB. Also, I’m not sure how good they’ll be with Murray. The CHI game was kinda weird/flukey. CHI shot themselves in the foot. I need to see more from MIN, against better opponents.
CHI could be tier 3. I’m unsure about their defense, although I think Dennis Allen is a solid DC.
With NE, I think not having Brown is a big deal. If they get him back, and Maye can protect the football, they will be a tough out against any opponent.
You also didn’t have the Lions on the list, so I’m guessing in the NFC North you have the Packers and Bears as the teams with the best chance of coming out of their division? I think the Bears have a good chance. They look like a great running team. However, Caleb Williams has all the skills, yet I’m less sold on him than I am on Kyler Murray. I’ve seen a lot of things from Caleb, last year and this year, that have me question his decision making. He just holds the ball too long at times. As for the Packers, I don’t think even when Micah comes back, they are just not a great team especially defensively. Now if Josh Jacobs is able to play, that could change the team and my opinion. I just never heard that he was coming back anytime soon. If I had to choose I would, pick the Bears and Vikes as the best two teams in the North.
I guess I would say so, but after last night’s game, I’m less sure about the Packers. With DET, the key questions are will they get better and how much? They definitely could get better, but I have no idea how much. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t really improve all that much.
I have some doubts about Williams, but I would prefer him over Murray. With Williams, I have questions about his ball security, particularly in the bigger moments. From the few regular season games I saw last year, he seemed to be improving and his decision-making seemed solid. Then in the playoffs (against the Rams or Packers–or both), he had some really bad plays. The thing is, he’s young, and these are things he can outgrow.
That’s fair, but what about comparing them to the best teams in the league? I’m uncertain about Williams, and I also don’t have a good sense about their defense. With the Vikings, I would say they are more of a tier 3 team. I would be surprised if they make a deep playoff run.
Bengals@Texans
Bengals look like a legitimately SB contender, assuming their defense is as good as they seem.
On a positive note for the Texans, the offense looked a ton better. Is that because they’ve improved or the Bengals D is not as good? It’s hard to say, but I tend to think the Bengals D is solid.
Vikings@Bears
Some sloppy play, a miscue on ST, and Williams getting hurt all lead to the Bears loss.
Saints@Ravens
I guess I have to put the Saints in tier 3 at least.
Raiders@Chargers
Except for the slip by Tucker, which lead to the INT, the Raiders played fairly clean. The Raider run defense seems very soft to me, and the more the Chargers passed, the happier I felt.
Overall, for these two games, this is the best I’ve seen the Raiders look in a long, long time.
Seahawks@Cardinals
The Seahawk defense and run game controlled the game. Drew Lock played a really good game for a back-up. I don’t think any of his throws came close to a turnover.
Also, with 10 minutes left, the Seahawk offense came close to perfectly executing a “4 minute” offense.
The signs for Brian Fleury look pretty good so far.
Commanders@Cowboys
I thought the Commanders didn’t look that bad last week, but while they might not be among the worst team in the league, they seem to be just a notch or two above that.
Colts@Chiefs
Good game. The Chiefs won, but I would be a little worried if I were them. Their defense couldn’t prevent the Colts offense from staying ahead of the sticks, even the Chiefs offense did a good job of extending drives and eating up the clock.
My impression is that the Chiefs have some vulnerabilities in the trenches. If that’s true, that’s not a great place to be. (Mahomes looked better at least.)
The Colts looked a lot better, and even though they lost, I would feel encouraged. They played well, and if they can keep playing this this all year, they have a shot to get into the playoffs and do some damage.