Seahawks@Rams is the game I’ve been waiting to see. The game could reveal that one team is for real, while the other is not; or that both teams are for legitimate contenders.
Power rankings:
1st tier: Chiefs and Rams
2nd tier: Seahawks, Eagles, Lions, Colts, Bills, Packers
I would put the Seahawks in the first tier, but I need to see them against better teams–like the Rams and Colts. (Actually, they should probably be lower as I don’t trust Darnold’s ball security. I’m just hoping he can change that.) I’m sticking with the Eagles for now just because I think their roster is strong, although maybe it’s not as strong as I think. (Their lackluster run-game is worrisome.) I’m keeping the Lions here for now. I’m not entirely confident about Daniel Jones, but the Colts have a run game that can keep them in almost any game. I would think their defense should get better with Sauce Gardner as well. I didn’t see the Bills game, but I’m keeping the Bills in here for now. Packers OL/DL don’t look as good, but I’ll keep them in here.
3rd tier: Buccaneers, Broncos, Chargers
The Bucs need to get healthy; I don’t really like the Broncos offense; the Chargers have a strong defense, but I’m skeptical they have enough on offense.
I agree with the Rams in the top tier. I’m not sure I’m as sold on the Chiefs. I agree they have pedigree though. I thought the Chiefs got handled by the Bills and the game wasn’t as close as the score. However, the Bills lost two bad games against the Falcons and Dolphins. I think right now I agree with the Chiefs being the best team in the AFC, but not sure if they are in the top tier with the Rams. I still give that spot to the Lions. So, Lions and Rams in tier 1 for me.
I like Seattle, Eagles, Colts and Bills in tier 2. The Packers offense looks really bad right now, so I cannot agree on them in tier 2. They will miss Tucker Craft’s production for sure.
I think I would put the Broncos in tier 2 as well and when comparing them to the Packers, I think they are a better team. I cannot put the Chargers in tier 3 without two of their top linemen in Alt and Slater.
I think you missed the Pats and would be surprised if you don’t like them in the top three tiers. I watched Maye against the Bucs and wasn’t super impressed, but New England as a team is good to very good. Definitely should be in the tier 2 group for me.
I’ll repeat that my list is if the playoffs was today, who I would give the edge to winning it all.
I agree that the Bills basically beat the Chiefs pretty handily, but I kept thinking the Chiefs were playing a certain way to set up the way they’d play in the playoffs. I doubt this is true, as I think every team is going to do everything they can win a game. But I’ll put it this way: if the Chiefs and Bills meet in the playoffs, I’m betting on the Chiefs.
As for the Chiefs being in tier 1, I just think they’re one of the most battle-tested teams out there. Their defense doesn’t look as good, but I’m not sure if they have injuries. Still, if their defense hasn’t slipped, I think they’ll be really tough to beat.
Speaking of battle-tested, I think the Eagles may deserve to be higher based on this, although their offense looks shaky at times. Their roster, especially on defense, just seems too good for them not to be contenders. (Lane Johnson left the Packers game with an injury, and I don’t know if it’s serious.)
I would consider moving the Packers into tier 3. It’s not just losing Craft, it’s their OL and DL that seem a little weaker than I thought. To be clear, I’m not saying they’re bad, but just more vulnerable than I thought.
Lions could be in tier 1. Their defense looked vulnerable in some of the games, but that may have been due to injuries. If they get healthy, then I’ll consider changing my tune.
With the Broncos, I need to see more from their offense. And I don’t think their defense is so great that their offensive effectiveness isn’t that critical.
Thoughts on the Seahawks-Rams game
I re-watched the Rams games against the Eagles and 49ers (first game). The games solidified my opinion of the Rams and where I have ranked them. They’re one of the most complete teams, and I would describe them as functioning like a well-oiled machine, on both sides of the ball. (Their secondary seems like the biggest vulnerability.) (I’m glad they’ll play the Lions before the playoffs, as I’m interested in watching that match-up. Too bad, they’re not playing the Chiefs.)
The Hawks are a well-rounded team, but their ball security is bad. If I put aside my rooting interest, I would say that basically dooms the Seahawks in this game, especially since I think a pattern exists to these turnovers. Specifically, I think Darnold’s ball security is shaky in a congested situations or when a defender is upon him. The ball tends to get tipped or knocked out of his hands. I think the latter is due to his long, wind up. Watch for this for the rest of the season, and tell me if you think I’m off on this. Right now, I think the pattern is pervasive, and I would say the chances of the Hawks going far into the playoffs is pretty low (unless he eliminates this from his game going forward). I should say that I hate feeling this way because other than this, I think Darnold is playing at an elite level. His accuracy seems crazy good, including on deep balls. And he seems to be making quick reads. Also, he has good mobility and playmaking ability (although he can be Jeckyl and Hyde in these situations, as this is when turnovers tend to happen as well).
Thoughts on the Cowboys-Raiders game
I understand that DeMarvion Overshown is coming back (I forgot he was out). This, plus the addition of Quinnen Williams, makes me pessimistic about the Raiders chances, especially since the Raiders recently lost their starting RG (Jackson Powers Johnson) and they’ve been without their starting LT, Kolton Miller. I also don’t think Chip Kelly is a playcaller that can really help his team–really, I think he depends more heavily on the talent of the players.
The additions of Overshown and Williams should give the Cowboys a really good front seven, and that should lead to a much better defense–good enough for the Cowboys to be a competitive playoff team. But we’ll see. (To me, I think one issue for the Cowboys is not getting away from the run game. To me, they’re better off playing as if the don’t have a good QB and/or WR corps–i.e., lean more on the run game.)
With the Raiders, I have more modest goals, for this game and the rest of the season. First and foremost, I want to see them eliminate plays that prevent winning–e.g., major mistakes on ST, turnovers, boneheaded miscues like bad snaps, balls bouncing off a targets hands, etc. If the Raiders can demonstrate that they’ve eliminated those things by the end of the season I’d count that as a win. Additionally, I think the defense has looked really good at times, and I hope that they can do this consistently for the rest of the season. Finally, on offense, it would be nice if they could get the run game going, from game to game, but I’m pessimistic about that, so I almost didn’t mention it.
Bucs, Bills:
The Bills have to be the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the NFL. Their offense can look dominate like they did against a good Buc’s D. Or they can look pretty bad against average or below average defenses like the Dolphins and Falcons. But when the Bills offense is going, they could be the best the league.
The Bucs was okay on offense and Bills had or have issues stopping the run. But the Bucs D got dominated and although the game was pretty close with the Bucs leading in the 4th, I didn’t think they had a chance to win.