Really good game, at least in terms of entertainment. If you told me the Panthers would be in this game after failing to convert on 4th right before midfield, turned the ball over via an INT and muffed punt, I woud have been shocked.
Other thoughts:
Kudos to Dave Canales and his coaching staff. I thought they did a great job. Their team played hard, played well, and I thought they had a great game plan. I watched the regular season game between these two teams, and the Panthers ran the ball a lot, sometimes in heavy personnel. They held on to the all for about 13 minutes in the 3rd. In this game, they passed more, and I’m guessing they thought the Rams would be prepared to stop the run. This could have been a way the coaching staff got to cute, but it didn’t turn out that way.
In a way, the game was close because the Rams missed on some explosive plays (e.g., Stafford missing a wide-open go route, Nacua dropping what should have been an easy completion on a go route). Stafford had a bad INT, and also the Rams allowed a blocked punt, which was huge.
On a similar note, I feel like the Rams hurt themselves when they get away from running the ball from under center, passing from shotgun a little too much. Their run game is awesome in that they can consistently get 3-5 yards. When they keep going to that, and then sprinkle in passes, they’re unstoppable.
Packers@Bears
A tale of two halves. The Packers were dominant, and Caleb Williams seemed to be unraveling and the Bears defense was terrible. I don’t know what happened in the second half, but the Bears defense looked dominant. And then it was McNanus’s turn to fall apart.
The thing that stood out to me the most was that the Jaguars seemed to be fairly effective running the ball from under center, but they went away from that. (I’m saying this so often, I’m wondering if my bias is blinding me.) To me, leaning on the RBs seem preferrable to leaning on Lawrence, who seems shaky as a starting QB.
Is it just me, or was something wrong with the Steeler defense, especially the run defense, and maybe specifically the DTs? The Texans don’t have a good OL, but their interior OL was getting really good push, and making good holes for the RBs. If someone missed parts of the game, they might not have come away with this impression–but I’d argue that’s because the Texans utilized shotgun passing, even though Stroud turned the ball over 3 times, and bobbled a snap and had a snap go to him when he wasn’t ready. The offense was almost giving away the game.
Luckily, the Texan defense was dominant. They look really good, really physical. Between them and the Seahawks, I’m not sure who I would choose. I might actually lean towards the Texans. It’s close.
If you guys watched the game, I would be curious to know if you agree with me or not.
Oh, one other question: Do you guys think this is one of the worst playoff teams you’ve seen? I feel like that. It’s not that there are any bad teams per se, but they also seem just OK or good, but not much more than that. I fee like the Seahawks and the Rams have the most complete teams, but they both have some vulnerabilities, especially the ball security of the Seahawks (Darnold).
I feel like the biggest reason for me to think the playoff teams aren’t viewed as great is a bunch of the star QBs and maybe stars in general are not in the playoffs. We only got Stafford and Allen. We are missing Mayfield, Burrow, Lamar, and Mahomes. And the teams these QBs are on, plus a team like the Lions, are the teams people view as being the good teams. The other reason is the best teams this year all are built on defense. Defensive teams don’t look as impressive especially when they don’t get good QB play.
Forget about how others view the teams–how do you view them? To me, they seem not much more than good, maybe some are much more than that in some areas, but fairly weak in others (e.g., Texans defense and offense). I feel like there really won’t be true upsets, especially with the remaining teams. It wouldn’t be really surprising if both one seeds lose in the first game.
The turnovers and that last DPI in OT basically cost the Bills the game.
The Broncos defense is good, but for a good defense, their run defense is not very good in my opinion. The Broncos offense isn’t all that great, either. Overall, they seem like a relatively weak #1 seed.
Also, not only do I think the Bills should have ran more, maybe feature different runs, including constraint plays (e.g., end arounds). More importantly, I don’t think Joe Brady does a good job of integrating and mixing run and pass.
ST getting a TD and D getting a bunch of turnovers, and I would included 4th down stops in that. The Hawks offense didn’t have to do much, but the seemed to run the ball fairly well.
Darnold surprised me by not having any turnovers–and I don’t think he had anything really close to turnover. (Maybe one play where a defender came close to jumping a pass.)
The Seahawks are going to be very difficult to beat if they can come close to replicating the above.
Turnovers, turnovers, and more turnovers. Stroud can make some nice plays, but he makes some really awful ones, too. Some of his errant throws, that merely lead to incompletions, are really bad as well–to the point where you say something is wrong.
The Texans are a team lead by a dominant defense. The Patriots, to me, are more a balanced team. The balanced team won. Maye made enough plays, and the Patriot run game came alive at the end to put the game away. The Patriot defense also dominated the LOS.
I like the Patriots over the Broncos. I think the Broncos run defense doesn’t look so great. And their offense, overall, doesn’t look so great as well.
I thought the Dennis Allen and the Bears defense played a really good game, keeping them in it. Caleb Williams’s accuracy looked really off all night. His pass catchers had to make some really good catches to help him. Yes, he makes that miraculous TD throw, but he lost the game with turnovers as well.
The Rams to me hurt themselves by getting away from the run.
I’m curious to hear whether you guys agree or disagree with some of my impressions of the playoffs so far.
The quality of the playoff teams seems low–lower than other years. I don’t think there is a really great team, at least not one that consistently plays great.
Most of the playoff teams don’t seem to have great ball security. Maybe the Rams are the best, but I don’t think they’re rock solid–and I think their ball security depends on the effectiveness of the run game, and if number of rushing attempts.
Teams are being a little too reckless with regard to going for it on 4th down. Defenses seem better in 4th down situations.
Offenses are getting too fixated on passing the ball and neglecting the run too much, when they really shouldn’t. (I felt this way watching the Bills, Bears, and Rams.)
Tony Kornheiser and Mike Wilbon have been saying all season it’s been one of the best seasons because there haven’t been clear favorites, but I’m with you. I’m a lot more forgiving than you about a football game — I can watch just about any game with interest, and not just because of fantasy.
I started the season thinking the Bills had finally figured it out. They were winning games with James Cook when Josh Allen wasn’t his best. And then they were winning games on Josh Allen by himself, which is exciting to watch but doesn’t bode well for a team’s long-term success.
I still don’t think the Seahawks and Broncos are very good, and they were the top seeds in their conferences. I tell you, if they win this weekend, it’s going to be the Super Bowl I’ll least look forward to since going back to the Steelers and Rams. I also don’t think the Bears and Patriots are very good.
The thing that saved the season for me was watching the Falcons, Saints, and Dolphins kind of figure a few things out. They were too late, but they made games interesting to me. You can’t take the fight out of the dog, and all that.
Tony Kornheiser and Mike Wilbon have been saying all season it’s been one of the best seasons because there haven’t been clear favorites, but I’m with you.
That’s helpful. It makes me feel that maybe it’s not just me (and I assume you were referring to the quality of the teams. And by the way if some fans like the parity that results from this, that’s fine. I personally don’t really care for this, though.)
They were winning games with James Cook when Josh Allen wasn’t his best. And then they were winning games on Josh Allen by himself,hey were winning games with James Cook when Josh Allen wasn’t his best. And then they were winning games on Josh Allen by himself,…
I feel like they did a bad job of marrying the run and pass games, especially using the run to set up passing opportunities. Compare them to the way McVay does this, especially when he has Stafford under center. It’s old school pro-style football, with the run game setting up the pass, and vice-versa.
The Bills had the run game to do this. They have some solid TEs as well that could make this come alive. My sense is that Allen is not comfortable under center, and/or isn’t so effective if he’s throwing the ball under 30 times a game. (Or maybe he would be really unhappy doing that?)
I still don’t think the Seahawks and Broncos are very good, and they were the top seeds in their conferences.
I’m curious to hear why you don’t think they’re not that good, or is this just a vague feeling?
As for the Patriots, I don’t think they’re a great team, but they seemed like one of those teams that’s good in every facet, having no glaring weaknesses. (Think of Eli Manning’s Giant teams that won the Super Bowl.)
The thing that saved the season for me was watching the Falcons, Saints, and Dolphins kind of figure a few things out
The Saints got a lot better? I kind of wrote them off.
I haven’t watched a lot of games from either team, so I’m not confident in my opinions. With that, I would have favored the Patriots, even if Nix played. The Broncos pass defense seems really good, but their run defenses seems like something that can be exploited, and I think the Patriots run game is good enough to do just that.
The Broncos offense, even with Nix, seems to struggle at times, and I think the Patriots defense is good enough for this to occur in this game. Without Nix, I would expect the Broncos to struggle even more.
The one caveat I would say: Stidham is largely an unknown quantity to the Patriots. I would guess there isn’t much game tape. If Payton really changes the offense to fit his strengths, the Patriot defense could be vulnerable. Having said that, I think this is a low-probability scenario.
Rams@Seahawks
I expect the Seahawks D/ST to play fairly well, if not great, and I think the key to the game will come down to whether the run game, of either team, can consistently keep the offense ahead of the sticks, as well as the offense that runs the ball over and over again. (30 or more carries would be a rough indicator of this.)
If the Hawks can do this, I think the Rams won’t be able able to rely on clever/complex schemes in the pass rush or pass coverage–because the run game will preoccupy them and limit their ability to do this. If they choose not to address the run game, the Hawks will gash them, control the clock and protect the football. If they devote more energy and resources to stopping the run, then I think Darnold will be able to excel.
If the Rams can do this, I think they’re almost impossible to beat. My sense is that McVay’s willingness to stick with the run, make Stafford more of a game manager and allow his RBs to win the game, will ultimately determine this. The Hawks defense has a very good run defense, but I don’t think its’s the type where they’re impossible to run against. Because of that, I think if McVay is patient (e.g., sticking with the run even if it means that some drives stall), the run game will do enough damage. and the passing game will be almost impossible to stop, and could even weaken the Seahawks defense by the end of the game.
I will concede that being patient in the way I describe isn’t necessarily easy as the Rams ST has been a vulnerability. I wouldn’t blame him if he wanted to limit punting the ball because of this. This would even more difficult if the Seahawks offense is extending drives and controlling the ball.
However, I think if he passes too much, especially from the gun, his offense can become too one-dimensional and while defending it wouldn’t necessarily easy, it’s a better match-up for the Seahawk defense. I think it increases the chances of Stafford taking hits and the Rams turning the ball over as well.
Other scenarios/predictions:
If both teams run the ball in the way I describe, I think it’ll likely be close, but I would give the edge to the Seahawks because of their D and ST.
If the Seahawks D/ST have big plays that could lead to a blowout or overcome turnovers by the Seahawks (Darnold).
If the Seahawks really isn’t consistently helping move the chains and the Hawks are relying quite a bit on Darnold, both in terms of difficult throws and the number of throws, I would expect him to turn the ball over, possibly multiple times. And this could lead to a two score victory by the Rams.
I would be really surprised if the Rams ST outplays the Seahawks ST.
Rams@Panthers
Really good game, at least in terms of entertainment. If you told me the Panthers would be in this game after failing to convert on 4th right before midfield, turned the ball over via an INT and muffed punt, I woud have been shocked.
Other thoughts:
Packers@Bears
A tale of two halves. The Packers were dominant, and Caleb Williams seemed to be unraveling and the Bears defense was terrible. I don’t know what happened in the second half, but the Bears defense looked dominant. And then it was McNanus’s turn to fall apart.
It was an odd game.
Bills@Jaguars
The thing that stood out to me the most was that the Jaguars seemed to be fairly effective running the ball from under center, but they went away from that. (I’m saying this so often, I’m wondering if my bias is blinding me.) To me, leaning on the RBs seem preferrable to leaning on Lawrence, who seems shaky as a starting QB.
Texans@Steelers
Is it just me, or was something wrong with the Steeler defense, especially the run defense, and maybe specifically the DTs? The Texans don’t have a good OL, but their interior OL was getting really good push, and making good holes for the RBs. If someone missed parts of the game, they might not have come away with this impression–but I’d argue that’s because the Texans utilized shotgun passing, even though Stroud turned the ball over 3 times, and bobbled a snap and had a snap go to him when he wasn’t ready. The offense was almost giving away the game.
Luckily, the Texan defense was dominant. They look really good, really physical. Between them and the Seahawks, I’m not sure who I would choose. I might actually lean towards the Texans. It’s close.
If you guys watched the game, I would be curious to know if you agree with me or not.
Oh, one other question: Do you guys think this is one of the worst playoff teams you’ve seen? I feel like that. It’s not that there are any bad teams per se, but they also seem just OK or good, but not much more than that. I fee like the Seahawks and the Rams have the most complete teams, but they both have some vulnerabilities, especially the ball security of the Seahawks (Darnold).
I feel like the biggest reason for me to think the playoff teams aren’t viewed as great is a bunch of the star QBs and maybe stars in general are not in the playoffs. We only got Stafford and Allen. We are missing Mayfield, Burrow, Lamar, and Mahomes. And the teams these QBs are on, plus a team like the Lions, are the teams people view as being the good teams. The other reason is the best teams this year all are built on defense. Defensive teams don’t look as impressive especially when they don’t get good QB play.
Forget about how others view the teams–how do you view them? To me, they seem not much more than good, maybe some are much more than that in some areas, but fairly weak in others (e.g., Texans defense and offense). I feel like there really won’t be true upsets, especially with the remaining teams. It wouldn’t be really surprising if both one seeds lose in the first game.
Bills@Broncos
The turnovers and that last DPI in OT basically cost the Bills the game.
The Broncos defense is good, but for a good defense, their run defense is not very good in my opinion. The Broncos offense isn’t all that great, either. Overall, they seem like a relatively weak #1 seed.
Also, not only do I think the Bills should have ran more, maybe feature different runs, including constraint plays (e.g., end arounds). More importantly, I don’t think Joe Brady does a good job of integrating and mixing run and pass.
49ers@Seahawks
ST getting a TD and D getting a bunch of turnovers, and I would included 4th down stops in that. The Hawks offense didn’t have to do much, but the seemed to run the ball fairly well.
Darnold surprised me by not having any turnovers–and I don’t think he had anything really close to turnover. (Maybe one play where a defender came close to jumping a pass.)
The Seahawks are going to be very difficult to beat if they can come close to replicating the above.
Texans@Patriots
Turnovers, turnovers, and more turnovers. Stroud can make some nice plays, but he makes some really awful ones, too. Some of his errant throws, that merely lead to incompletions, are really bad as well–to the point where you say something is wrong.
The Texans are a team lead by a dominant defense. The Patriots, to me, are more a balanced team. The balanced team won. Maye made enough plays, and the Patriot run game came alive at the end to put the game away. The Patriot defense also dominated the LOS.
I like the Patriots over the Broncos. I think the Broncos run defense doesn’t look so great. And their offense, overall, doesn’t look so great as well.
Bears@Rams
I thought the Dennis Allen and the Bears defense played a really good game, keeping them in it. Caleb Williams’s accuracy looked really off all night. His pass catchers had to make some really good catches to help him. Yes, he makes that miraculous TD throw, but he lost the game with turnovers as well.
The Rams to me hurt themselves by getting away from the run.
I’m curious to hear whether you guys agree or disagree with some of my impressions of the playoffs so far.
Tony Kornheiser and Mike Wilbon have been saying all season it’s been one of the best seasons because there haven’t been clear favorites, but I’m with you. I’m a lot more forgiving than you about a football game — I can watch just about any game with interest, and not just because of fantasy.
I started the season thinking the Bills had finally figured it out. They were winning games with James Cook when Josh Allen wasn’t his best. And then they were winning games on Josh Allen by himself, which is exciting to watch but doesn’t bode well for a team’s long-term success.
I still don’t think the Seahawks and Broncos are very good, and they were the top seeds in their conferences. I tell you, if they win this weekend, it’s going to be the Super Bowl I’ll least look forward to since going back to the Steelers and Rams. I also don’t think the Bears and Patriots are very good.
The thing that saved the season for me was watching the Falcons, Saints, and Dolphins kind of figure a few things out. They were too late, but they made games interesting to me. You can’t take the fight out of the dog, and all that.
That’s helpful. It makes me feel that maybe it’s not just me (and I assume you were referring to the quality of the teams. And by the way if some fans like the parity that results from this, that’s fine. I personally don’t really care for this, though.)
I feel like they did a bad job of marrying the run and pass games, especially using the run to set up passing opportunities. Compare them to the way McVay does this, especially when he has Stafford under center. It’s old school pro-style football, with the run game setting up the pass, and vice-versa.
The Bills had the run game to do this. They have some solid TEs as well that could make this come alive. My sense is that Allen is not comfortable under center, and/or isn’t so effective if he’s throwing the ball under 30 times a game. (Or maybe he would be really unhappy doing that?)
I’m curious to hear why you don’t think they’re not that good, or is this just a vague feeling?
As for the Patriots, I don’t think they’re a great team, but they seemed like one of those teams that’s good in every facet, having no glaring weaknesses. (Think of Eli Manning’s Giant teams that won the Super Bowl.)
The Saints got a lot better? I kind of wrote them off.
Thoughts on the conference championships.
Patriots@Broncos
I haven’t watched a lot of games from either team, so I’m not confident in my opinions. With that, I would have favored the Patriots, even if Nix played. The Broncos pass defense seems really good, but their run defenses seems like something that can be exploited, and I think the Patriots run game is good enough to do just that.
The Broncos offense, even with Nix, seems to struggle at times, and I think the Patriots defense is good enough for this to occur in this game. Without Nix, I would expect the Broncos to struggle even more.
The one caveat I would say: Stidham is largely an unknown quantity to the Patriots. I would guess there isn’t much game tape. If Payton really changes the offense to fit his strengths, the Patriot defense could be vulnerable. Having said that, I think this is a low-probability scenario.
Rams@Seahawks
I expect the Seahawks D/ST to play fairly well, if not great, and I think the key to the game will come down to whether the run game, of either team, can consistently keep the offense ahead of the sticks, as well as the offense that runs the ball over and over again. (30 or more carries would be a rough indicator of this.)
If the Hawks can do this, I think the Rams won’t be able able to rely on clever/complex schemes in the pass rush or pass coverage–because the run game will preoccupy them and limit their ability to do this. If they choose not to address the run game, the Hawks will gash them, control the clock and protect the football. If they devote more energy and resources to stopping the run, then I think Darnold will be able to excel.
If the Rams can do this, I think they’re almost impossible to beat. My sense is that McVay’s willingness to stick with the run, make Stafford more of a game manager and allow his RBs to win the game, will ultimately determine this. The Hawks defense has a very good run defense, but I don’t think its’s the type where they’re impossible to run against. Because of that, I think if McVay is patient (e.g., sticking with the run even if it means that some drives stall), the run game will do enough damage. and the passing game will be almost impossible to stop, and could even weaken the Seahawks defense by the end of the game.
I will concede that being patient in the way I describe isn’t necessarily easy as the Rams ST has been a vulnerability. I wouldn’t blame him if he wanted to limit punting the ball because of this. This would even more difficult if the Seahawks offense is extending drives and controlling the ball.
However, I think if he passes too much, especially from the gun, his offense can become too one-dimensional and while defending it wouldn’t necessarily easy, it’s a better match-up for the Seahawk defense. I think it increases the chances of Stafford taking hits and the Rams turning the ball over as well.
Other scenarios/predictions: